Lockdown means complete breakdown of economy

RN Malik
Karl Marx wrote in 1870" Even children know that a nation which ceases to work even for few weeks would perish very soon. " Now after a period of 150  years we have the possibility of seeing a similar spectacle again because of complete lockdown in whole of India for three weeks to  break the chain of transmission of corona virus . We may be able to beat the deadly virus but our already fledgling economy is also destined to be doomed and would take years to recover to it's desired levels. Could there be a better way to  grapple with the contagion and save the economy from destruction simultaneously.
Presently the government's immediate line of thinking has been to block the contagion from spreading and think of the economic survival later on. The roadmap to fight at the two fronts was never thought of.
Corona virus did not exist in India. It entered India via airports when large number of Indians started pouring from Europe, US and Middle East countries when Corona virus infection started spreading like the wild fire there after 8th March.
But Indian government did not make any advance preparation to deal with large inflow of Indians from abroad and arrange for their two weeks of quarantine process. They were subjected to only thermal screening and allowed to depart with a simple advice to remain aloof in their homes for two weeks. They took this advisory very lightly and mingled with people freely as they did not show any sign or symptom of Corona infection being  in the incubation period. 64000 Indians rushed to India two days before the ban on the international flights w. e. f. 22nd of March
You will recall that China built two 1000 beds hospitals with prefabricated technology within two weeks. No such effort was made here. Our hospitals still run without ventilators. Government hospitals of Kaithal district do not have a single ventilator.
 Initially the rate of new cases of Corona infection was 15 persons per day and increased to  100 cases per day after 17th March and is stable till now. Partial lockdown started in all urban areas and reached the full circle on 24th March when the Prime Minister declared curfew like lockdown to cover whole of India.
This kind of radical measure is taken when all other measures have been tried and failed. There were only 478 cases on that day when this decision was taken.
The Prime Minister did not consult even the Chief Ministers of states about the pernicious impact on economy before taking this draconian decision.
Plight of Economy.
Indian economy has been in doldrums since April 2018 and GDP growth came down to 4.7 percent by the end of December 2019. The insipid 2020--21 budget amply proved that the government has no clue to lift the economy out of the morass.
Therefore the decision to clamp the complete lockdown came like a bolt from the blue on the  crippled economy. As a result, all the services( manufacturing, supply chains, transport,services etc.) have been hit hard.
 Small shopkeepers and daily wage workers are now without work and earning. Manpreet Singh,the Finance Minister of  Panjab is right to calculate that daily loss of revenue is Rs. one lac lac crore per day and many states may face blues in disbursement of salaries. Accordingly  chances  of bounce back of economy are remote.
What should have been done at the initial stages.
The government should have taken advance measures against  possible Corona outbreak in the country once  Corona cases had started spreading in Europe, US and Iran like a wild fire on 8th March. The government should have anticipated heavy arrivals from these countries.
70 international flights carrying Indians started arriving at Delhi airport itself. Same was the story at Mumbai and Kochi airports.. The government did not wake up to the realty and limit the international flights to carry only  4000 passengers per day and make complete quarantine facilities for 56000 persons near the major airports simultaneously.Once Indians knew that they would be quarantined for two weeks in camps, their arrivals  rate would have reduced significantly and things would have become easy to handle. This master stroke would have singled out all positive cases in the camps  and scope for infection transmission within the country would have been reduced to zero. All the positive cases could be sent to different hospitals for final treatment and the country would have been saved from this devastating drudgery through which it is passing now.
The second option left was to divide the passengers into two categories i.e. those above 55 years of age and below. The list of these passengers along with their complete addresses should have been sent to Deputy Commissioners with the directions to ensure that listed passengers would be subject to in house quarantine. The passengers too should have been given  strict directions in a printed format that they would be legally bound to report to the nearest government hospital to inform about their arrival and in house isolation. It would have been easy for the Chief Medical Officer to spot these new entrants and conduct necessary tests . The DCs. could also be asked to create separate quarantine facilities at the district level for persons above the age of 55 years. This option too would have reduced the possibility of transmission of infection to a great extent.This kind of strict directions have not been issued even by now.
Requirement of extent of Lockdown.
The government has not informed about the epidemiological analysis? of the Covid epidemic so far. It has not given district wise distribution of new cases along with their age groups. Nor it has divided the 606 ( cases upto 26th March) into two groups I. e. those who arrived from abroad and who got infected from close contact with them. It is now learnt that all the 606 cases live in 103  different towns.. Therefore complete lockdown was needed only in 103 towns or maximum in 103  districts with complete border sealing. This was enough to break the transmission chain of the infection.
Even now there are five N--E states where there is not a single case of Covid infection. So these states required only sealing of borders and nothing else. All normal social, economic and transport activities could be allowed.
Likewise there are twelve states where the number of positive cases vary from one to ten only. A partial lockdown with border sealing of affected districts boundaries was more than enough to break the chain of transmission in these twelve states. Remaining states except Kerala and Maharashtra have large contiguous regions where there is not a single case of Corona infection . Probably people from abroad did not arrive in these districts. For example, Sirsa, Fatehabad Hissar, Jind, Bhiwani, Narnaul, Rewari, Jhajjar and Rohtak districts of Haryana do not have a single case of Corona infection and there is no transmission chain in this chunk of the state. So border sealing of this region from adjoining districts was  enough to isolate this region and normal social, economic and transport activities should have been allowed. South Korea did not clamp lockdown even for a single day.
 Likewise China limited the lockdown to Hubei province only. So why total lockdown in whole of India with just 478 cases on 24 th March defies all logic.
Hence complete lockdown in 103 districts would been sufficient to overpower the spread of Covid infection and save the economy from sinking to the bottom.
Saving of economy is as indispensable as breaking the transmission chain. The government has gone for an Overdrive to fight against the Covid infection but ignored the second responsibility of saving the economy totally. 100 new cases per day continuously for seven days in a vey big country like India does not justify complete lockdown for 21 days. This will kill the economy beyond recovery. 
The author is a retd Engineer-in -chief Public Health, Gurgaon and can be reached at 9911078502.