Ironically Mamata Banerjee seems helping the BJP

Lakshmana Venkat Kuchi
Will the expansion mode of Mamata Bannerjee led Trinamool Congress out of  West Bengal hurt or help the leading opposition party, the Congress? This is the question that is agitating the minds of the political scientists as the breakaway Congress leader from West Bengal is eyeing a bigger, national role for herself now, after she thrashed the BJP fair and square in the assembly elections in what became a straight, ugly and intense fight between the two formations.
The BJP was hoping to unseat Mamata Bannerjee in the assembly elections held recently, and pre-election mood and atmosphere in that state, and more important, the media gave indications of a possible BJP victory due to a strong anti-incumbency of 10 years that Mamata Bannerjee went to polls with.
After beating the combined might of the BJP, its friendly parties and central government, Mamata Bannerjee’s political ambitions soared and she began making moves to get the opposition parties together. Clearly, her moves were resented by the Congress that sees itself as the national alternative to the BJP, as it has a pan India presence unlike the regional forces that are very strong in their respective regions but are absent elsewhere.
Clearly, TMC under Mamata Bannerjee has very different ideas and has begun targeting then Congress wherever it could – firstly in the North East that is in its neighbourhood where the latest development is the luring away of 12 MLAs out of 17 Congress MLAs in Meghalaya and stake claim as the principal opposition party in a house of 60. Caught somewhat unawares, the Congress is left twiddling its thumb and making noises of legal action even as the damage is done. Former Chief Minister Mukul Sangma is among the defectors.
The TMC had already gone to Goa that is going to polls along with Uttar Pradesh and Punjab and has begun luring Congress leaders and is following an aggressive poaching policy – from the Congress largely and any other disgruntled leaders from other political parties to build TMC outside West Bengal. Why, there are even members of TMC in different states too, but barely without any clout, political or otherwise.
All these are firm indicators of the national ambitions TMC supremo entertains. And why not. She has staved off the mighty election-winning machinery of the largest political party of the world and stopped it in its tracks in a no holds-barred high stakes elections. In guile, cunning and political sagacity, Mamata Bannerjee outsmarted the BJP’s leadership and her politics continued even after winning the elections.
She is managing to engineer a continuing reverse swing – of BJP leaders joining the TMC. Most of those who left TMC for BJP on the eve of elections, are heading back ‘home’, and the messaging is very clear as to who is the Boss of West Bengal. Her political image too has got a tremendous boost after the assembly elections victory – with her party increasing its already brute strength inside the assembly.
But she knows that the BJP with 70 plus MLAs in the house is a potent force and she has to deal with that party only in the future.
Anticipating this, Mamata had begun taking on the BJP ahead of even the 2019 general elections to the Lok Sabha and was trying to form a coalition of opposition parties and managed to get 23 parties on board for a brief while. Ironically, it is the success of Narendra Modi in his transition from Gujarat Chief Minister to the Prime Minister of India that is inspiring regional leaders to dream, and dream big.
But Modi has an advantage that the.leaders of regional parties do not have - that is that he belongs to a national party-with presence  in few states compared to  the regional  leaders confined to one state each . This makes it difficult for others to emulate Modi.
And yet, 2024 will become more competitive should the 2022 ;and 2023 assembly elections were to throw up results not favourable to the BJP. In this context, the battle for Uttar Pradesh has become very keen, and even the BJP knows it, and it has done the unthinkable  - made a sudden U turn on three farm laws and withdrawn them.
The farmers’ agitation from now on is expected to gain momentum as they have tasted blood and are upping the ante with each passing day. Not only the farmers show their intent by adding demands , but also other groups of agitators are gaining confidence and may try their luck as the ruling BJP cannot afford to rub the voters the wrong way, especially ahead of crucial elections. This is also being widely seen as a reason for dropping excise rates on petroleum products - a move coming from the central government.
Sensing that the government is on the backfoot and the Congress seemingly in a disarray Mamata Bannerjee has stepped up her efforts to occupy the opposition space wherever possible - which is why her renewed focus on two small states of Goa and Meghalaya.
On the face of it, her politics is directed against the BJP, but it is the Congress that is falling victim at this stage, as it loses its leaders to the TMC. In itself, these leaders may not count for much,  but with the departure of every leader, the narrative against the Congress gets stronger and stronger.
Even induction of Gopal Tanwar, a dalit leader in Haryana, into TMC from the Congress is a step in this direction of diluting the Congress by chipping away slowly. Ironically, it is the BJP that stands to gain with the progress that the TMC makes in weakening the Congress.
But can the TMC replace the Congress as a magnet for opposition unity remains to be seen.