Has Myanmar coup sparked rethinking on non-interference among ASEAN countries?

Nehginpao Kipgen
It’s no surprise Myanmar’s coup is testing the patience of the international community.
Protesters have called for external intervention, following three deaths. After being sprayed by water cannons, rubber bullets and more, they expect an imminent use of more lethal force by the military.
But the international community has–unsurprisingly–been unable to launch a coordinated approach, apart from the expected strongly worded statements from the UN Security Council on Feb 4 and the UN Human Rights Council on Feb 12.  
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and other world leaders may have condemned the military’s brutality over this past week.
But that only went as far as to elicit a response from the Myanmar foreign ministry on Feb 22 that authorities were “exercising utmost restraint” in refuting the condemnations and calling them a “flagrant interference” in Myanmar’s internal affairs as a sovereign country.  
STRONGER WORDS FROM ASEAN
What has raised some eyebrows, however, is the stern, finger-wagging words of Myanmar’s closer Southeast Asian compatriots.
Malaysia views the political situation in Myanmar as a “serious” development and a “step backwards in the country’s democratic process”, Prime Minister Muhyiddin’s Yassin said, warning that the political unrest there could “affect peace and stability in the region” on Feb 4 during his visit to Indonesia.
Calling the situation “alarming”, Singapore Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan also warned of serious consequences for Myanmar and the region if the situation continued to escalate in his response to a Parliament question on Feb 16.
Even Thailand, which has a history with military coups, called for ASEAN nations to take a “collective stand” on the issue.  
The ground may have further shifted after two protesters were killed over the weekend after police opened fire on demonstrations, with the Singapore Ministry of Foreign Affairs calling the use of lethal weapons against civilians “inexcusable” on Feb 20.
Both Singapore and Indonesia Foreign Affairs Ministers also expressed grave concern over ongoing developments and discussing further steps for ASEAN to address the situation in Myanmar earlier on Feb 18.
Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi also emphasised on Tuesday (Feb 23) that Myanmar’s transition to democracy should follow the wishes of its people and urged for ASEAN to double efforts to mediate between the junta and protesters.
WHAT’S BEHIND STRONGER WORDS
To some extent, Indonesia and Malaysia’s stronger words for Myanmar has come as less of a surprise, given their consistently tough stance on the country to take responsibility for the Rohingya crisis and get their house in order or face repercussions.
They have come under strong pressure to take this position since 2017 from the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, which also pushed for the Rohingya case to be heard at the International Court of Justice last year.
And while many observers have highlighted that Singapore’s rhetoric on Myanmar’s coup seemed unusually aggressive, history shows Singapore has taken a consistent, principled stance premised on the rule of law and national responsibility for internal issues. Its position on the Rohingya crisis is instructive.
“To be brutally honest, this is a man-made humanitarian disaster and something which should not be happening in this day and age,” Dr Balakrishnan had said in October 2018 when pressed on ASEAN’s efforts to resolve the situation in Rakhine.
Indeed, while keen observers point to the lack of reference to the Rohingya crisis in ASEAN statements, during Singapore’s chairmanship in 2018, ASEAN countries worked hard, far away from the media spotlight, to secure Myanmar’s commitment in taking concrete steps.
ASEAN must be given credit in pushing to facilitate the voluntary return of displaced people and the implementation of recommendations by the Advisory Committee on Rakhine State headed by former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan.
Similar behind-the-scenes shuttle diplomacy has been at play over the past two weeks, with Indonesia spearheading efforts with other ASEAN foreign ministers to find a resolution to the crisis.
Ms Marsudi has been travelling across Southeast Asia to rally support from ASEAN members for a special summit to discuss next steps. She may also be leading more back-channel talks with the Tatmadaw to find a compromise and prevent further violent crackdowns.  
CAREFUL NOT TO OVERPLAY
Indeed, ASEAN countries are clear-eyed and know they cannot publicly push too forcefully given the lack of unanimity on the approach to take within the grouping.
They are also well aware actions on their part could look like foreign interference into domestic politics even to anti-coup protesters, after remarks that Indonesia is pushing for ASEAN to send election monitors if the junta holds national polls sparked threats of demonstrations at the Indonesian Embassy in Yangon on Feb 23.   
ASEAN countries know they must be careful not to overplay their hand and put too much pressure on Myanmar or suggest that they can offer solutions to the country’s complex troubles. (To be contd)