Has Myanmar coup sparked rethinking on non-interference among ASEAN countries?

Nehginpao Kipgen
Contd from previous issue
For one, they may be drawn into debates on how far they may be willing to go to back on their rhetoric, where the reality is that most have significant commercial interests in Myanmar, particularly Singapore, the biggest investor bringing in more than S$24 billion of capital in 2019.
Mr Balakrishnan had to walk a tightrope in clarifying that he would not presume to tell the Singapore business community what to do following the coup in urging against the use of widespread sanctions.
“I am sure companies making commercial decisions and investment decisions will also pay attention to the political context of the venue in which they are seeking to invest in.”
WHAT ASEAN BRINGS TO THE TABLE
ASEAN should also guard against getting drawn into the power play as major countries and segments of the international community search for levers to exert greater pressure on Myanmar.
The US knows its actions, even combined with other western countries, will not move the needle on Myanmar, and seek to build a coordinated international approach whereby ASEAN plays a leading role.
There are signs this is underway, when White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan spoke with ambassadors from ASEAN, urging them to support for the “immediate restoration” of democracy in Myanmar and Secretary of State Antony Blinken doing the same with his counterparts.
The Americans know Myanmar will be more willing to listen and engage with neighbouring ASEAN states, given the country’s strong anathema to Western interference, seen during the relief efforts for the 2008 Cyclone Nargis disaster.  
The regional bloc’s freshly created ASEAN Humanitarian Task Force for Victims of Cyclone Nargis (AHTF) played a leading role in helping to coordinate international relief and rehabilitation efforts.  
Moreover, Washington understands an advantage in ASEAN taking the lead is the grouping’s ability to rally the support of both China and Russia.     
BEST HOPE YET
ASEAN countries may wax and wane in how stern an approach they take towards member-states like Myanmar where difference arise, but this will not be the last time Southeast Asian countries express harsher positions than expected.
Former Singaporean senior diplomat Bilahari Kausikan had already highlighted how ASEAN membership should not be taken as granted and can be revoked if actions of member-states grow detrimental to the bloc’s collective interests.  
More importantly, something horrible has gone wrong in Myanmar and the pressure cannot let up.
This was a usurping of power by the military against the wishes of the overwhelming majority of voters. A democratically elected government was pushed aside on unsubstantiated electoral allegations.  
There may be limitations on what ASEAN can conceivably achieve since any dialing back of the clock and return to democracy lies in the hands of the Tatmadaw. But ASEAN is still the world’s best hope of nudging the situation in Myanmar.
(Dr Nehginpao Kipgen is a Political Scientist, Associate Professor and Executive Director at the Center for Southeast Asian Studies, Jindal School of International Affairs, O P Jindal Global University. He is the author of three books on Myanmar, including Democratization of Myanmar. Source: CNA/sl)