Will the BJP go it alone or... LS polls is just 2 Yrs away

    12-Mar-2022
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At one level the equation is simple yet real politiks may say something else and this is what will make the next few days interesting. With 32 MLAs in its kitty, the BJP has the needed number to go it alone. But the question is whether it would be politically prudent to go it alone, especially since the next Lok Sabha elections is scheduled sometime in 2024, which is just two years away. Politics today is such that a partnership in one State can have an impact on other States and even at the Central level and this is the reason why the BJP continues to stick to the NDA model, even though it was perfectly placed to form the Government on its own after the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. The question is whether this would be kept in mind when the next BJP led Government is sworn in or not. Chief Minister N Biren has already made it clear, at least verbally, that it will not go with the NPP in the next Government formation. The question is whether the top honchos within the BJP share the same line of thoughts or not. With Y Joykumar and L Jayenta biting the dust in the just held Assembly election, two persons who are deemed to not go along with Chief Minister N Biren no longer in the picture today, it remains to be seen whether this new development can have any impact on future developments, as far as the partnership between the BJP and the NPP is concerned. Another interesting point would be to see how the saffron party will go along with the JD (U), which did rather well with 6 MLAs. Will the Bihar model have any impact on Government formation here or not is the question. Moreover many of the JD (U) MLAs were at one point of time intending BJP candidates before the just held Assembly election. Will these factors influence the model of Government that will take form in the next few days ? And how much is the BJP willing to bend backwards to accommodate the potential partners in the Council of Ministers ? If at all the BJP strikes up a partnership with any of the other parties, how many can be accommodated in the Council of Ministers ? These are all questions at the moment, but to be sure these questions must have already started doing the round in the corridors of power, more so within the hierarchy of the BJP. How will NEDA play out its card in the coming days, is another interesting question and here one can expect Assam Chief Minister and NEDA convenor Himanta Biswa Sarma to play an important role.
These are questions which must be doing the round amongst the elected MLAs, not only of the other political parties which may go along with the BJP in Government formation, but also among the BJP MLAs who were not inducted in the Council of Ministers in the last Government. The Chief Minister has also more than hinted that its partnership with the NPF will continue and the interesting question is how the five elected MLAs of the NPF will be accommodated in the Council of Ministers. Not everything is clear, more so since the result was announced only 24 hours back, that is on March 10, and most of the elected members are keeping the cards close to their chest. It should however be clear that the next Lok Sabha election can be a big factor in any decision that the  BJP takes, for it should be clear that here is a party which has always managed to look far ahead. Another interesting question that has been doing the round is whether Manipur will see a new Chief Minister or whether it will continue with N Biren. The good showing of 32 MLAs will certainly be a big factor in any decision the saffron party takes and remember that apart from the Central leaders such as the Prime Minister himself, Union Home Minister Amit Shah, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh and other Central leaders, it was the Chief Minister who took the call of the BJP across the 60 Assembly segments. Remains to be seen whether the Assam model will be followed here but already the BJP is set to continue for another five years.