The argument for why the West should change course on Ukraine
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Ishaan Tharoor with Sammy Westfall
The war in Ukraine, at least for some policymakers in Western capitals, can be measured in deliveries of weapons. Their response to the brutal onslaught unleashed by Russia last February has been a parade of armor and steel: Javelins, howitzers, drones, strike vehicles, antiaircraft systems, HIMARS and, most recently, battle tanks. At every stage, Kyiv has clamored for more to throw out the invading Russians, and at almost every stage, the West has acceded to Ukrainian demands, though perhaps not at the speed Ukraine would like.
The next round of wrangling may center on Ukraine’s desire for scores of multipurpose fighter jets, which Kyiv wants as it prepares to repulse a rumored forthcoming Russian offensive and reclaim Russian-held territory in the country’s southeast, as well as the Crimean peninsula that Russia annexed in 2014. “Give us your weapons, and we will get back what’s ours,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told the global elites in Davos last month.
When asked this week if he would send F-16 jets, President Biden flatly said “no,” while British officials said it was “not practical” to send such strike craft. But French President Emmanuel Macron told reporters that, “by definition, nothing is excluded” in terms of delivery of aid to Ukrainians. Such is the Western rhetorical commitment to the Ukrainian war effort. The West seems to fully embrace Ukraine’s fight for its sovereignty, as well as Kyiv’s maximalist vision for victory.
Western officials recognize that the war should (and probably can only) end diplomatically. But every time a reporter asks a Western politician or diplomat on the record what the endgame looks like, they almost always offer the same set of responses: It’s up to Ukraine to determine the conditions of the peace (even though without foreign help, they would likely not be able to hold their own); Russia is not interested in good faith negotiations; and the important task now is to arm Ukraine sufficiently so that its hand at a theoretical future negotiating table is as strong as it can be.
A new report takes issue with this position, warning that it puts the United States on the path toward open-ended conflict that could escalate even more dangerously. “Avoiding a long war: US policy and the trajectory of the Russia-Ukraine conflict,” published recently by the influential RAND Corporation, a Washington-based think tank, argued that the longer the war dragged on, the more likely the risk of an escalation that could pit Russia in direct conflict with NATO and possibly see the Kremlin deploy nuclear weapons on the battlefield. Instead of enabling the war to sprawl onward, Western powers should do more to push the warring parties toward talks, it advised.
(To be contd)
The war in Ukraine, at least for some policymakers in Western capitals, can be measured in deliveries of weapons. Their response to the brutal onslaught unleashed by Russia last February has been a parade of armor and steel: Javelins, howitzers, drones, strike vehicles, antiaircraft systems, HIMARS and, most recently, battle tanks. At every stage, Kyiv has clamored for more to throw out the invading Russians, and at almost every stage, the West has acceded to Ukrainian demands, though perhaps not at the speed Ukraine would like.
The next round of wrangling may center on Ukraine’s desire for scores of multipurpose fighter jets, which Kyiv wants as it prepares to repulse a rumored forthcoming Russian offensive and reclaim Russian-held territory in the country’s southeast, as well as the Crimean peninsula that Russia annexed in 2014. “Give us your weapons, and we will get back what’s ours,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told the global elites in Davos last month.
When asked this week if he would send F-16 jets, President Biden flatly said “no,” while British officials said it was “not practical” to send such strike craft. But French President Emmanuel Macron told reporters that, “by definition, nothing is excluded” in terms of delivery of aid to Ukrainians. Such is the Western rhetorical commitment to the Ukrainian war effort. The West seems to fully embrace Ukraine’s fight for its sovereignty, as well as Kyiv’s maximalist vision for victory.
Western officials recognize that the war should (and probably can only) end diplomatically. But every time a reporter asks a Western politician or diplomat on the record what the endgame looks like, they almost always offer the same set of responses: It’s up to Ukraine to determine the conditions of the peace (even though without foreign help, they would likely not be able to hold their own); Russia is not interested in good faith negotiations; and the important task now is to arm Ukraine sufficiently so that its hand at a theoretical future negotiating table is as strong as it can be.
A new report takes issue with this position, warning that it puts the United States on the path toward open-ended conflict that could escalate even more dangerously. “Avoiding a long war: US policy and the trajectory of the Russia-Ukraine conflict,” published recently by the influential RAND Corporation, a Washington-based think tank, argued that the longer the war dragged on, the more likely the risk of an escalation that could pit Russia in direct conflict with NATO and possibly see the Kremlin deploy nuclear weapons on the battlefield. Instead of enabling the war to sprawl onward, Western powers should do more to push the warring parties toward talks, it advised.
(To be contd)