Why India’s security in the North East depends on stability in Bangladesh

Abiema Lisham
For India, Bangladesh is not just a neighbouring country—it is a strategic reality that directly shapes the security of the eastern region. Nowhere is this linkage more visible than in the Northeast. For states like Assam and Tripura, developments in Bangladesh are not distant geopolitical events; they have immediate consequences on the ground. Experience has shown repeatedly that when Bangladesh is stable, the Northeast remains secure, and when instability rises, vulnerabilities quickly emerge.
India shares a long and complex land border with Bangladesh that passes through West Bengal, Assam, Meghalaya, Tripura, and Mizoram. This border cuts across rivers, forests, villages, and densely populated areas, making it difficult to manage under normal circumstances and even harder during periods of political unrest. When governance and law enforcement weaken across the border, coordination suffers, and illegal activities tend to increase. Smuggling, trafficking, and organised crime networks exploit uncertainty, placing additional pressure on Indian border forces and state administrations.
Assam and Tripura feel these pressures most acutely. Assam’s history has made migration an extremely sensitive issue. Even the perception of instability in Bangladesh revives fears of demographic imbalance, political disruption, and social tension. Tripura’s own past experience of large-scale demographic change reinforces these concerns. For both states, border security is not merely about fences and patrols; it is closely tied to social stability and political confidence.
Security agencies in the Northeast also carry a long institutional memory. For decades, insurgent groups operating in Assam and Tripura maintained camps and safe havens across the border. It was only through sustained cooperation with successive governments in Bangladesh that these networks were dismantled. This cooperation played a crucial role in restoring relative peace to the region. Any weakening of state control or political focus in Bangladesh raises concerns that dormant militant or extremist elements could attempt to regroup or re-establish transit routes.
Political instability also creates space for extremist organisations to expand their influence. Periods of unrest are often accompanied by prison breaks, weapons leakage, and increased radical mobilisation. For India, the risk is not limited to direct violence but also includes propaganda, recruitment, and long-term radicalisation efforts that target vulnerable populations in border areas. Such activities can quietly undermine security over time.
At the same time, the Northeast views Bangladesh through a broader lens than security alone. There are deep cultural, linguistic, and economic connections across the border. A stable Bangladesh enables smoother trade, better connectivity, and shorter transit routes for the landlocked Northeast, opening real economic opportunities. Stability allows security forces to shift focus from constant crisis management to development-oriented policing and community engagement, creating a more secure environment for growth.
India has responded to recent instability with heightened vigilance along the eastern frontier. Border surveillance has been strengthened, additional forces have been deployed at vulnerable points, and senior leadership has conducted regular reviews of preparedness. These measures reflect the seriousness with which the situation is viewed. However, India recognises that border management alone cannot address the deeper strategic risks posed by prolonged instability.
Ultimately, for Assam and Tripura, stability in Bangladesh is not an abstract diplomatic concern—it is a foundation of everyday security and long-term peace. Strong borders are important, but stable neighbourhoods are indispensable. India’s security in the Northeast depends on a balanced approach that combines robust border management with sustained diplomatic engagement and support for stability in Bangladesh. When Dhaka is stable, the Northeast is calmer, more secure, and better positioned to move forward on the path of peace and development.