A region on edge for three years on the trot Lives hanging in the balance as Manipur braces for a new security push
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Sophia Rajkumari
More than three years after the ethnic violence tore the State apart in May 2023, the wounds refuse to heal. Instead, they keep bleeding in new and more complicated ways. Families still live in makeshift camps, children have grown up knowing nothing but uncertainty, and now a fresh wave of fear is spreading not just from old rivalries, but from what might come next.
A Conflict That Refuses to Fade
What started as a bitter rupture between the Meitei and the Kuki communities over land, political power, and Scheduled Tribe status has pulled in the Naga community too. The result is a painful multi-ethnic tangle of territorial claims, armed mobilizations, and deep mistrust.
As of mid-2026, the official death toll has crossed 260, and nearly 60,000 people remain displaced in relief camps, even after the Government promised to resettle them by March 2026. Violence still flares without warning. In April, an explosion in Tronglaobi snatched away two young children. Since February, direct clashes between Naga and Kuki groups in Ukhrul, Kangpokpi, and nearby districts have added a dangerous new layer. On May 13, armed men killed three Kuki Church leaders and the recent killing of 6 abducted Nagas. Abductions, blockades on National Highway-2, house burnings and killings continue. The cycle of pain comes another full circle, reopening scars from the 1990s Naga-Kuki conflicts. Standing in one of the affected villages, you hear the same anguished question from mothers and elders on all sides: “How many more of our children have to suffer before this stops?”
The Strain of Cross-Border Refugee Inflows
Manipur is a small State just about three million people already struggling with poverty, limited farmland, and fragile infrastructure. The steady inflow of refugees from Myanmar’s civil war, mostly from Chin-Kuki-Zo communities, has added real pressure. New settlements, forest encroachments, and compe- tition for scarce resources have heightened tensions. In a place where jobs, healthcare, and Government schemes are already stretched thin, these additional burdens are felt deeply by host communities.
Kinship ties led many families to open their doors at first. But as months turn into years without enough Central support, resentment grows alongside genuine humanitarian concern. The suspension of the Free Movement Regime and verification drives show New Delhi is trying to manage the situation. Yet, for ordinary people on the ground, it often adds another layer of anxiety about demographics, land, and identity.
In late May, India hosted Myanmar’s President Min Aung Hlaing for a five-day official visit (May 30–June 3, 2026). He met Prime Minister Narendra Modi, visited Bodh Gaya, and held talks in Mumbai on trade, connectivity, border security, and defence cooperation. For Manipur, this matters because many insurgent groups have long maintained links and sanctuaries in Myanmar’s Sagaing Region and Chin State.
The visit brought assurances that Myanmar’s territory would not be used for anti-India activities, along with promises of better intelligence-sharing and joint action against militants, arms smuggling, and narcotics. Many in India see it as a pragmatic step that could squeeze cross-border networks and exert pressure on both Kuki-Chin as well as Meitei armed groups and make them more amenable to New Delhi’s signals. Yet others worry it signals a harder security approach without addressing the human roots of the crisis.
The Entry of CoBRA Commandos: Hope Mixed with Fear
The latest development is the arrival of two CoBRA battalions [Commando Battalion for Resolute Action] comprising roughly 2,000 elite jungle warfare and counter-insurgency personnel. This is their first deployment in Manipur. These are battle-hardened units known for tough anti-Naxal operations.
Under the new state government, and adding to the already significant numbers of security forces and Army deployments in Manipur, they are seen as a signal that the Central Government wants to reclaim control and disrupt armed networks.
This revives old and unpleasant memories of counter insurgency operations in Manipur in the 1990s and 2000s. These included sudden cordons, late-night searches, ambushes and counter insurgents that lacked accountability- and the ever-present risk that a single mistake could destroy innocent lives. This is creating anxiety in relief camps and villages. What if intensified military operations bring collateral damage ? What if checkpoints choke daily life even more ? What if a stray bullet or aggressive raid claims the life of another child, another elder who has nothing to do with the militants ? The apprehension is real and widespread.
After years of trauma, civilians on all sides dread becoming unintended victims in the crossfire. Widows and orphaned children already carry enough pain. Expanded operations could mean restricted movement, fear of being caught in the wrong place at the wrong time, and fresh waves of displacement. It is worth asking whether the potential increase in armed operations will bring peace, or just more graves and broken homes ? And if not, is there some other way to break the impasse?
A Crossroad for Manipur
The convergence of persistent ethnic violence, Naga-Kuki clashes, refugee pressures, India-Myanmar diplomacy, and these new CoBRA deployments points to a determined push to break insurgent logistics, restore state authority, and create space for dialogue. That said, the Government has to tread with care and calibration. People want peace and security desperately, but not at the cost of more civilian suffering. True healing will require more than military resolve. It demands transparency in operations, strict accountability, protection of innocent lives, and genuine political dialogue that addresses land disputes, equitable development, refugee management, and rebuilding trust between communities.
The coming months will be decisive. The people of Manipur are resilient - but they are exhausted by continuing to bear the heavy burden of disruption and violence. One can only hope that this new turn brings not just stronger security, but also compassion and justice for the ordinary families who simply want to live without fear.
More than three years after the ethnic violence tore the State apart in May 2023, the wounds refuse to heal. Instead, they keep bleeding in new and more complicated ways. Families still live in makeshift camps, children have grown up knowing nothing but uncertainty, and now a fresh wave of fear is spreading not just from old rivalries, but from what might come next.
A Conflict That Refuses to Fade
What started as a bitter rupture between the Meitei and the Kuki communities over land, political power, and Scheduled Tribe status has pulled in the Naga community too. The result is a painful multi-ethnic tangle of territorial claims, armed mobilizations, and deep mistrust.
As of mid-2026, the official death toll has crossed 260, and nearly 60,000 people remain displaced in relief camps, even after the Government promised to resettle them by March 2026. Violence still flares without warning. In April, an explosion in Tronglaobi snatched away two young children. Since February, direct clashes between Naga and Kuki groups in Ukhrul, Kangpokpi, and nearby districts have added a dangerous new layer. On May 13, armed men killed three Kuki Church leaders and the recent killing of 6 abducted Nagas. Abductions, blockades on National Highway-2, house burnings and killings continue. The cycle of pain comes another full circle, reopening scars from the 1990s Naga-Kuki conflicts. Standing in one of the affected villages, you hear the same anguished question from mothers and elders on all sides: “How many more of our children have to suffer before this stops?”
The Strain of Cross-Border Refugee Inflows
Manipur is a small State just about three million people already struggling with poverty, limited farmland, and fragile infrastructure. The steady inflow of refugees from Myanmar’s civil war, mostly from Chin-Kuki-Zo communities, has added real pressure. New settlements, forest encroachments, and compe- tition for scarce resources have heightened tensions. In a place where jobs, healthcare, and Government schemes are already stretched thin, these additional burdens are felt deeply by host communities.
Kinship ties led many families to open their doors at first. But as months turn into years without enough Central support, resentment grows alongside genuine humanitarian concern. The suspension of the Free Movement Regime and verification drives show New Delhi is trying to manage the situation. Yet, for ordinary people on the ground, it often adds another layer of anxiety about demographics, land, and identity.
In late May, India hosted Myanmar’s President Min Aung Hlaing for a five-day official visit (May 30–June 3, 2026). He met Prime Minister Narendra Modi, visited Bodh Gaya, and held talks in Mumbai on trade, connectivity, border security, and defence cooperation. For Manipur, this matters because many insurgent groups have long maintained links and sanctuaries in Myanmar’s Sagaing Region and Chin State.
The visit brought assurances that Myanmar’s territory would not be used for anti-India activities, along with promises of better intelligence-sharing and joint action against militants, arms smuggling, and narcotics. Many in India see it as a pragmatic step that could squeeze cross-border networks and exert pressure on both Kuki-Chin as well as Meitei armed groups and make them more amenable to New Delhi’s signals. Yet others worry it signals a harder security approach without addressing the human roots of the crisis.
The Entry of CoBRA Commandos: Hope Mixed with Fear
The latest development is the arrival of two CoBRA battalions [Commando Battalion for Resolute Action] comprising roughly 2,000 elite jungle warfare and counter-insurgency personnel. This is their first deployment in Manipur. These are battle-hardened units known for tough anti-Naxal operations.
Under the new state government, and adding to the already significant numbers of security forces and Army deployments in Manipur, they are seen as a signal that the Central Government wants to reclaim control and disrupt armed networks.
This revives old and unpleasant memories of counter insurgency operations in Manipur in the 1990s and 2000s. These included sudden cordons, late-night searches, ambushes and counter insurgents that lacked accountability- and the ever-present risk that a single mistake could destroy innocent lives. This is creating anxiety in relief camps and villages. What if intensified military operations bring collateral damage ? What if checkpoints choke daily life even more ? What if a stray bullet or aggressive raid claims the life of another child, another elder who has nothing to do with the militants ? The apprehension is real and widespread.
After years of trauma, civilians on all sides dread becoming unintended victims in the crossfire. Widows and orphaned children already carry enough pain. Expanded operations could mean restricted movement, fear of being caught in the wrong place at the wrong time, and fresh waves of displacement. It is worth asking whether the potential increase in armed operations will bring peace, or just more graves and broken homes ? And if not, is there some other way to break the impasse?
A Crossroad for Manipur
The convergence of persistent ethnic violence, Naga-Kuki clashes, refugee pressures, India-Myanmar diplomacy, and these new CoBRA deployments points to a determined push to break insurgent logistics, restore state authority, and create space for dialogue. That said, the Government has to tread with care and calibration. People want peace and security desperately, but not at the cost of more civilian suffering. True healing will require more than military resolve. It demands transparency in operations, strict accountability, protection of innocent lives, and genuine political dialogue that addresses land disputes, equitable development, refugee management, and rebuilding trust between communities.
The coming months will be decisive. The people of Manipur are resilient - but they are exhausted by continuing to bear the heavy burden of disruption and violence. One can only hope that this new turn brings not just stronger security, but also compassion and justice for the ordinary families who simply want to live without fear.