Is the third wave a possibility ?

Birkarnelzelzit Thiyam
Is the third wave something we need to wait for? Time and again leading experts have warned of an imminent third COVID-19 wave in India. While a section of experts said that the third wave will affect children and younger people more, some epidemiologists had predicted a series of surges till we achieve herd immunity through infection or vaccination and the disease becomes endemic.
In July 2021, the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) had projected that the third wave may hit India by the end of August. Prior to ICMR, the Indian Medical Association had said the third wave is definitely coming to hit India. Earlier, the World Health Organisation chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus had warned that the world is in the “early stages” of the third wave of Covid-19, driven by the Delta variant of the virus.
While this has not set off an alarm since a significant number of patients are fully vaccinated and do not experience the severity seen during the first and second wave, it has led to scores of Covid cases going unrecorded because most doctors are not even advising those with mild symptoms to undergo tests. Even those who are advising patients to get tested say there is very little compliance.
Neighbourhood general practitioners, who have proved invaluable in diagnosing Covid cases and providing treatment to patients with not-so-severe symptoms, realised sometime last month that the virus had altered symptoms when they found multiple members of the same family suffering from cough and cold.
Though various state governments have allowed celebrations to go ahead with strict protocols in place, experts say festivals give people the license to move around and mingle — conditions in which the coronavirus thrives. Many are worried that the celebrations could contribute to a spike. While vaccination is going on, remember that barely 20-25% of the adult population has received two doses, which by default leaves the rest of the population susceptible to the virus. But on the bright side, India is leading the world on vaccination, not only by manufacturing vaccines but by administering them as well. Three more vaccines are in the pipeline.
India is unlikely to see a Covid wave like the devastating second one unless there is a new immune escaping variant but the lower number of cases does not necessarily mean the pandemic is now endemic. The experts said India will continue to experience local increases in Covid cases even though it is unlikely to see another overwhelming surge in infections like it did during the second wave when the country’s healthcare system was overwhelmed and thousands died. New variants could potentially still pose a challenge. Any new variant which spreads much more easily, especially amongst people who are vaccinated or have been previously infected, could lead to new surges.
Is the worst of the COVID crisis behind India? As cases dip three weeks after Diwali, the answer is a possible yes, say several experts, attributing the downslide to a large section of the population already exposed to the virus during the second wave and a stepped-up vaccination campaign. Though there are always imponderables, including the possibility of a new, transmissible variant and the onset of winter in large parts of the country, a third wave as devastating as the second one is unlikely. COVID cases may rise, perhaps across late December-February, but the impact will be milder than what India experienced in the second wave when thousands died and many thousands more were hospitalised.
As the news is all up in the air about the coming of a third giant, let’s pull ourselves together and get our families and friends in the safer light of the game. Trust me – it’s way easier to research about Covid-19 for writing an article than waiting for someone close to come out of the ICU room while you see his/her oxygen drop rapidly.
The writer is an International Awardee and also a major in International Business Marketing from Algonquin, Ottawa, Canada. He is also the Managing Director & Chief Marketing Officer of Khoihee Industries, regd. under the directorate of industries and commerce, Government of Manipur. He can be reached at birkarnelzelzitthiyam3073@gmail.com.Watch his motivational videos on YouTube at LWB Show. Whatsapp 9310065882 for talking or sharing anything with the writer.