Covid and opportunity of Manipur

Mohendro Nandeibam
Manipur lives in the villages and survives on the blessings of monsoon and market. Farmers are key players. Government is key facilitator and creates enabling environment free from damaging interference. The fate of State economy is largely determined by the fate of agrarian economy. The concept of agriculture as backward occupation should now go. It is a dynamic one.
China accepted this reality long back in 1980s. The success of Chinese takeoff during 1980s has part of its origin in the commitment to strengthening local Government, private enterprises and rural farmers. China brought industry to rural towns, diversifying rural income; and this approach could be emulated in other transforming countries. The farm policy to keep farmers with reasonable margin of profit and to enable them to enjoy the benefit of distributive justice is amazing.
Today the solid rural foundation is vanguard against global shocks and seasonal risks. Manipur needs to learn this lesson from China. The recent policy announcement of Doubling Farmers Income within 5 years marks the recognition of the hard reality.
Seven pillars announced by the Honorable Prime Minister such as 1) enhanced focus on irrigation, 2) availability of quality seeds and nutrients, 3) large scale investment in warehousing, cold change and storage facilities, 4) value addition through food processing, 5) risk management through crop insurance, 6) setting up of a National Market and 7) promoting ancillary activities like poultry and fisheries, speak of the National commitment to accelerated rural development through farmers welfare.
As a positive stand towards realization of the ‘Dream’, the Interministerial Committee went ahead with 7 more concrete recommendations such as a) Improvement in crop productivity, b) Improvement in livestock productivity, c) Resource use efficiency, d) Increase in cropping intensity, e) Diversification towards high value crop, f) Improvement in real prices received by farmers and g) Shift from farm to non-farm occupation. The committee called for market reforms, contract farming and Gramin Haat. Perhaps the most significant step is the constitution of Empowered Body on 23-01-2019 for monitoring implementation of recommendations.
The question before us how far States like Manipur have geared up planning and development to increase farmers average income of Rs 96703 in 2015-16 to Rs 1,93,400 in 2022-23 ? To achieve the target, the average annual growth rate of agricultural sector should be 10% (Dalwai Committee) while at the moment it is hardly 4%. The fate of agricultural sector by and large depends upon seed industry, fertilizer industry, irrigation equipments, agro chemical industries, farm machinery industry and market perfection. In short it is going to be an uphill task.
One thing is clear that all out effort is being made to strengthen rural economy through the strategy of doubling farmers income. This is good, although it is fairly late. When the whole Nation is all set to embark upon the new initiative to double farmers income, possibly within 5 years, Manipur is talking about mounting shortfall of food grains to the extent of 2,88,000 Mts even after 70 years of economic planning in the State. Perhaps, policy–paralysis lies at the root of the dismal failure. How can we develop our economy without a sound Agricultural Policy; a policy document pregnant with forward looking planning, pro-active action plan and a sound road map to a new position of exceptional production. It should spell out where do we stand now, where to go, how to go and how soon. The Department of Agriculture should now rise to the occasion.
We have yet to learn that monsoon and market are two great monsters threatening agrarian sector in the State. What about Land Use Policy while land is mother of all development interventions. Scarcity of positive land is looming large. The threat of climate change is on the rise. Water bodies have been exhausted. A time has definitely come for us to stop completely, once for all, the indiscriminate transfer of agri-land for non-agricultural purposes. What about water scarcity ? What about better technology ? What about agricultural credit ? What about efficient marketing infrastructure ? Efficient marketing infrastructure is backbone of agricultural breakthrough. It creates hassle free demand and stimulates supply chain. Right now, the sector does not function as system with a set of interrelated activities working together towards a shared common goal. Manipur is a classic example of most backward marketing networks. We are running without wholesale market, cold chain, storage and ware housing.
Village periodical markets are operating in the mini world without any visible passion for larger export and import. Market imperfections are allowed to play against both producers and consumers. This is the untold story of rural economy of Manipur. This is bad for the country and worse for Manipur in the wake of One Economic India; One Tax, One Market, One India.
While making the rural sector fairly strong and resilient the turn of global event, most likely, may be in favour of NE region; particularly Manipur with an array of opportunity for exporting a few indigenous products such as ginger, chilli, honey, handloom products and bamboo products. The economic scenario of export sector may undergo a change against China in the aftermath of COVID-19
Several studies are of the view that the dominating position of China as Exporter No. 1 may be severely affected as immediate outcome of “doubtful” role in the global war against Covid. Right now, China is No. 1 exporter in 17 items such as Bamboo Products (7), Ginger, Grapes, Pottery, Honey, Hangers of wood, Apple and Chilli. The total export value of 30 items is about USD 3917080(,000) in 2019.
The position of China in bamboo sector is unparallel. 7 (seven) kinds of bamboo products are exported. The export value could be around USD 455620,000 in 2019. The bamboo shoot is most attractive with export value of USD 2,62,741,000, followed by USD, 100,245,000 of bamboo tiles, USD 1,10,700,000 of bamboo Agarbati, and USD 96,653,000 of mats and screens.
In the same way the export value of bamboo pulp could be around USD 2,915,000 and that of charcoal USD 84,265,000. Equally interesting and challenging is handloom sector with earnings of USD 25,265,000. Handicraft also does well with export value of USD 12,04,188,000.
The cloth hangers of wood find a prominent place in the hierarchy with export value of USD 1,87,808,000. Chilli does extremely well with export value of USD 3,75,169,000 followed by apple with USD 19,509,000.
China attains 2nd position in the world in silk yarn with export value of USD 74,691,000 followed by the 3rd position in cashew nut with export earning of USD 5,07,248,000. Although China stands fourth in the passion fruit, export value of passion fruit is as high as USD 2,44,837,000 followed by dragon fruit (USD 244,837,000) and jack fruit (USD 244,837,000).
Areca nut/betel nut earns USD 17,58,847,000. China is the 5th in the world. By exporting tomato, China earns USD 200,159,000 and by exporting lemon USD 153,184,000. The bird eggs give China USD 1,11,637,000 and lovely papaya silently earns 19,509,000. This is the planning of China to strengthen the rural economy. The possibility of weakening and even losing external market of China cannot be ruled out as a result of doubtful role in Covid  management. The loss of China maybe the gain of India via NE region. Now Manipur may get ready and fully prepared to take fuller advantage of the emerging opportunity.
What shall we do now ? Manipur may go ahead as swiftly as possible with the creation of Special Economic Zone, accompanied by Area Development, Product Development and Target Development to ensure a significant share in the export market of horticultural products. Our products should now have global appeal and reach. Competitive standardization should be the guiding article of production. A time has definitely come for Manipur to set up Export Promotion Board.

The writer was Professor of Economics, Manipur University.