Successful isolation of Pakistan by PM Modi
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Lt Col M Ranjit Singh (Army Veteran)
Prime Minister Modi has recently been declared the most popular global leader with a 78% rating by a US-based Consulting Firm, Morning Consult. It is the universal recognition of his rise in stature and power. A significant achievement and good news for all Indians indeed. However, the biggest service he has done for India is the successful isolation of Pakistan in the International arena which resulted in the near end of militancy in Kashmir. For an easy understanding of the situation in Kashmir, we need to go back to a bit of history.
The relationship between India and Pakistan has not been good since the partition in 1947. The leading cause of the strained relationship between the two countries is Kashmir. One would recollect that there were 561 princely States in India in 1947. All the princely States on partition were to accede with India or Pakistan as per their geographical contiguity, with the power to accede with either country lying solely to its rulers. Given the majority population of Muslims in Kashmir, Pakistan was very hopeful that Kashmir would join them.
Nevertheless, Maharaja Hari Singh, the then ruler of Kashmir, signed an Instrument of Accession with India on October 26, 1947, and Kashmir became part of India. Pakistan still has not reconciled to the fact that Kashmir is now an integral and inalienable part of India. This a classic case of not understanding India’s stand with Kashmir by those who are determined not to understand it.
The relationship between USA and Pakistan directly influences Indo-Pak relations. Therefore a brief note on their relationship is given here. The USA, in the 1960s, due to its morbid fear that Communism would spread to South Asia through Pakistan, always overlooked certain misgivings of Pakistan. They even ignored the then-growing relationship between Pakistan and China. Then came the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979. The invasion came as a blessing in disguise for Pakistan. Cooperation from Pakistan’s Military regime was essential to the USA in expelling Russia from Afghanistan. Taking advantage of this God-gifted situation, the isolated Military Dictator in Pakistan requiring international legitimacy allowed its soil to be used as a sanctuary, training ground, and staging area in mounting an insurgency against the Soviet military. The role of Pakistan became even more critical after 9/11 and during the fight against the Taliban. Pakistan, an immediate neighbour of Afghanistan and an ally of America became a frontline State in combating the Taliban.
America provided massive financial and military support to near-bankrupt Pakistan for fighting against the Taliban, strengthening Pakistan’s defence capabilities and potential for economic development. The total aid America gave Pakistan from 1947 to 2016 was around $ 80 billion. During that time, America gave F-16 fighter aircraft to Pakistan, giving an edge to Pakistan Air Force over IAF and denying technology transfer of cryogenic engines to India.
We all know that Pakistan, in its endeavour to annex Kashmir, fought four wars, including Kargil War with India. Failing in all its attempts to snatch Kashmir from India through war, Pakistan started the separatist and militant insurgency in Kashmir in the 1980s using financial and military aid received from America. Terrorist organizations like Hizbul Mujahedeen and Lashkar-e-Taiba were established in the Kashmir valley through the Pakistan intelligence agency ISI. The insurgency in Kashmir was at its peak when Modi became Prime Minister. Stone pelting to security forces, unrest and the population’s defiance of curfew were routine occurrences then. If one is to believe social media reports, it was reported that ISI in those days used to dole out a fake Rs 500 note to each participant in stone pelting to security forces. However, the menace of fake currency inflows from Pakistan to Kashmir ended after demonetizing Rs 500 and Rs 1000 bank notes in November 2016.
Modi, a seasoned administrator and shrewd politician, started taking action to expose Pakistan’s involvement in Kashmir immediately after becoming PM. His tasks involved sensitizing international communities on the issue and simultaneously taking proactive actions internally. If my memory serves me right, PM started his international exposure of Pakistan’s link with extremists from the soil of Beijing, a foreign country and a close ally of Pakistan, in 2015. It is worth remembering that Pakistani people always claim the friendship between Pakistan and China as ‘higher than the mountain, deeper than the sea and sweeter than honey’. While speaking to students at Tsinghua University in May 2015, Modi highlighted that the spreading tide of extremism and terrorism was a threat to both China and India as its source was in the same region.
He was here indirectly hinting towards Pakistan. His second salvo was fired during his maiden visit to UAE, an Islamic country, in August 2015. In their joint statement, both countries condemn extremism, including States that use religion to justify support and sponsor terrorism against other countries. His masterstroke was, however, made while speaking to a sizeable Indian crowd at Dubai Cricket Stadium the next day. He spoke on sponsoring terrorism against India by other countries suggesting Pakistan’s involvement, and in Hindi, he tauntingly spoke ‘Samajne wale samaj Jayenge’. Roughly meaning ‘those who understand have understood’.
The appreciative crowd roared in approval of his remark. While speaking in British Parliament on November 12, 2015, and in US Congress on June 7, 2016, he exposed Pakistan for harbouring terrorists and urged them to isolate the country. He sought cooperation from both countries to meet terrorism threats from Jaish-e-Mohammed and Lashkare-Taiba, both terrorist organizations from Pakistan. After the Peshawar attack, he again reminded Pakistan that there is no ‘good’ or ‘bad’ terrorism. PM Modi, from 2016 onwards, openly started calling Pakistan the “mother of terrorism” as a part of a reprised campaign to increase international pressure on Pakistan for harbouring and supporting militant groups.
The placing of Pakistan under the FATF Grey List in 2018 was, to some extent, due to the exposure of misdeeds in Pakistan to the whole world by PM Modi. In the meantime, he made a policy shift vis-à-vis Pakistan after the Uri terrorist attack. The first-ever surgical strike across the LOC in POK (unthinkable in earlier days), retaliation on large scales to Pakistani shelling across the LOC, abrogation of the special status of J & K etc., are some of his bold changes in Kashmir Policy. Interestingly the speculation that there would be a substantial increase in terrorism induced-violence in Kashmir after the revocation of Article 370 never happened.
The actions taken by Modi have started showing results now. India’s neighbours, leading Islamic countries and all big powers except China agree to the points made by Modi on Pakistan. Pakistan is politically, socially and economically in dire straits, and other countries also marginalize them. Besides Modi’s calculated actions, the changes in the geopolitical situation in the region and the actions of many political leaders of Pakistan itself also led to the present situation in Pakistan. With the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan, America now has no use for Pakistan.
The financial and military aid earlier given freely to Pakistan by them has been stopped. In any case, America does not want to antagonize India, as they need India to counter China. The Pakistani leader who single-handedly brought the present condition of Pakistan undoubtedly is Mr Niazi. Yes, I am talking of Shri Imran Khan, the ex-Prime Minister of Pakistan.
He does not use his surname lest people associate him with General Niazi, who in 1971 shamefully surrendered to India along with 93,000 soldiers. During Imran Khan’s tenure, Modi refused to take his call, and Biden refused to call him. Initially, his relationship with Prince Salman of Saudi Arabia was excellent. Their bonhomie ended abruptly when Imran decided to form a separate Islamic Block with Turkey and Malaysia. One still remembers the infamous incident of September 2019 when Prince Salman snubbed him by ordering his private jet to ‘disembowel’ the Pakistani delegation. Earlier, Salman had given his private Jet to Imran Khan to travel to the US for a weeklong visit. Imran had suspended trade relations with India after the withdrawal of Article 370 from Kashmir. The present Pakistan regime per force still follows his footstep. They are aware that if they tried any means to improve relations with India, they would be branded by Imran Khan as enemies of Pakistan. The present fragile Pakistani regime cannot afford to do so. In the bargain, the ordinary people of Pakistan are having a tough time as the trade link between India and Pakistan has been stopped. Items which would have been affordable if bought directly from India are now being bought through Dubai at higher rates. For India, Prime Minister Modi should continue to do what he is doing to Pakistan until they realize that enough is enough and the best for their country and for the region lies in making peace with India.
I conclude my article by predicting two possible scenarios, one in late 2023 and the second one in the middle of 2024. Both Biden and Putin will be attending the Summit of G20 in New Delhi on September 9-10, 2023. Modi can negotiate with both leaders and announce the end of the Ukraine War in their presence in India. The following prediction concerns the timing of the second surgical strike in Pakistan. India has to strike Pakistan once again because of the recent Poonch incident.
Many analysts predict India will strike during January-February 2024 when all important diplomatic events are over and just before the general election. However, my assumption is that India would strike during June 2024 when Modi is sworn in as Prime Minister of India for the third time. What say ?
Prime Minister Modi has recently been declared the most popular global leader with a 78% rating by a US-based Consulting Firm, Morning Consult. It is the universal recognition of his rise in stature and power. A significant achievement and good news for all Indians indeed. However, the biggest service he has done for India is the successful isolation of Pakistan in the International arena which resulted in the near end of militancy in Kashmir. For an easy understanding of the situation in Kashmir, we need to go back to a bit of history.
The relationship between India and Pakistan has not been good since the partition in 1947. The leading cause of the strained relationship between the two countries is Kashmir. One would recollect that there were 561 princely States in India in 1947. All the princely States on partition were to accede with India or Pakistan as per their geographical contiguity, with the power to accede with either country lying solely to its rulers. Given the majority population of Muslims in Kashmir, Pakistan was very hopeful that Kashmir would join them.
Nevertheless, Maharaja Hari Singh, the then ruler of Kashmir, signed an Instrument of Accession with India on October 26, 1947, and Kashmir became part of India. Pakistan still has not reconciled to the fact that Kashmir is now an integral and inalienable part of India. This a classic case of not understanding India’s stand with Kashmir by those who are determined not to understand it.
The relationship between USA and Pakistan directly influences Indo-Pak relations. Therefore a brief note on their relationship is given here. The USA, in the 1960s, due to its morbid fear that Communism would spread to South Asia through Pakistan, always overlooked certain misgivings of Pakistan. They even ignored the then-growing relationship between Pakistan and China. Then came the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979. The invasion came as a blessing in disguise for Pakistan. Cooperation from Pakistan’s Military regime was essential to the USA in expelling Russia from Afghanistan. Taking advantage of this God-gifted situation, the isolated Military Dictator in Pakistan requiring international legitimacy allowed its soil to be used as a sanctuary, training ground, and staging area in mounting an insurgency against the Soviet military. The role of Pakistan became even more critical after 9/11 and during the fight against the Taliban. Pakistan, an immediate neighbour of Afghanistan and an ally of America became a frontline State in combating the Taliban.
America provided massive financial and military support to near-bankrupt Pakistan for fighting against the Taliban, strengthening Pakistan’s defence capabilities and potential for economic development. The total aid America gave Pakistan from 1947 to 2016 was around $ 80 billion. During that time, America gave F-16 fighter aircraft to Pakistan, giving an edge to Pakistan Air Force over IAF and denying technology transfer of cryogenic engines to India.
We all know that Pakistan, in its endeavour to annex Kashmir, fought four wars, including Kargil War with India. Failing in all its attempts to snatch Kashmir from India through war, Pakistan started the separatist and militant insurgency in Kashmir in the 1980s using financial and military aid received from America. Terrorist organizations like Hizbul Mujahedeen and Lashkar-e-Taiba were established in the Kashmir valley through the Pakistan intelligence agency ISI. The insurgency in Kashmir was at its peak when Modi became Prime Minister. Stone pelting to security forces, unrest and the population’s defiance of curfew were routine occurrences then. If one is to believe social media reports, it was reported that ISI in those days used to dole out a fake Rs 500 note to each participant in stone pelting to security forces. However, the menace of fake currency inflows from Pakistan to Kashmir ended after demonetizing Rs 500 and Rs 1000 bank notes in November 2016.
Modi, a seasoned administrator and shrewd politician, started taking action to expose Pakistan’s involvement in Kashmir immediately after becoming PM. His tasks involved sensitizing international communities on the issue and simultaneously taking proactive actions internally. If my memory serves me right, PM started his international exposure of Pakistan’s link with extremists from the soil of Beijing, a foreign country and a close ally of Pakistan, in 2015. It is worth remembering that Pakistani people always claim the friendship between Pakistan and China as ‘higher than the mountain, deeper than the sea and sweeter than honey’. While speaking to students at Tsinghua University in May 2015, Modi highlighted that the spreading tide of extremism and terrorism was a threat to both China and India as its source was in the same region.
He was here indirectly hinting towards Pakistan. His second salvo was fired during his maiden visit to UAE, an Islamic country, in August 2015. In their joint statement, both countries condemn extremism, including States that use religion to justify support and sponsor terrorism against other countries. His masterstroke was, however, made while speaking to a sizeable Indian crowd at Dubai Cricket Stadium the next day. He spoke on sponsoring terrorism against India by other countries suggesting Pakistan’s involvement, and in Hindi, he tauntingly spoke ‘Samajne wale samaj Jayenge’. Roughly meaning ‘those who understand have understood’.
The appreciative crowd roared in approval of his remark. While speaking in British Parliament on November 12, 2015, and in US Congress on June 7, 2016, he exposed Pakistan for harbouring terrorists and urged them to isolate the country. He sought cooperation from both countries to meet terrorism threats from Jaish-e-Mohammed and Lashkare-Taiba, both terrorist organizations from Pakistan. After the Peshawar attack, he again reminded Pakistan that there is no ‘good’ or ‘bad’ terrorism. PM Modi, from 2016 onwards, openly started calling Pakistan the “mother of terrorism” as a part of a reprised campaign to increase international pressure on Pakistan for harbouring and supporting militant groups.
The placing of Pakistan under the FATF Grey List in 2018 was, to some extent, due to the exposure of misdeeds in Pakistan to the whole world by PM Modi. In the meantime, he made a policy shift vis-à-vis Pakistan after the Uri terrorist attack. The first-ever surgical strike across the LOC in POK (unthinkable in earlier days), retaliation on large scales to Pakistani shelling across the LOC, abrogation of the special status of J & K etc., are some of his bold changes in Kashmir Policy. Interestingly the speculation that there would be a substantial increase in terrorism induced-violence in Kashmir after the revocation of Article 370 never happened.
The actions taken by Modi have started showing results now. India’s neighbours, leading Islamic countries and all big powers except China agree to the points made by Modi on Pakistan. Pakistan is politically, socially and economically in dire straits, and other countries also marginalize them. Besides Modi’s calculated actions, the changes in the geopolitical situation in the region and the actions of many political leaders of Pakistan itself also led to the present situation in Pakistan. With the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan, America now has no use for Pakistan.
The financial and military aid earlier given freely to Pakistan by them has been stopped. In any case, America does not want to antagonize India, as they need India to counter China. The Pakistani leader who single-handedly brought the present condition of Pakistan undoubtedly is Mr Niazi. Yes, I am talking of Shri Imran Khan, the ex-Prime Minister of Pakistan.
He does not use his surname lest people associate him with General Niazi, who in 1971 shamefully surrendered to India along with 93,000 soldiers. During Imran Khan’s tenure, Modi refused to take his call, and Biden refused to call him. Initially, his relationship with Prince Salman of Saudi Arabia was excellent. Their bonhomie ended abruptly when Imran decided to form a separate Islamic Block with Turkey and Malaysia. One still remembers the infamous incident of September 2019 when Prince Salman snubbed him by ordering his private jet to ‘disembowel’ the Pakistani delegation. Earlier, Salman had given his private Jet to Imran Khan to travel to the US for a weeklong visit. Imran had suspended trade relations with India after the withdrawal of Article 370 from Kashmir. The present Pakistan regime per force still follows his footstep. They are aware that if they tried any means to improve relations with India, they would be branded by Imran Khan as enemies of Pakistan. The present fragile Pakistani regime cannot afford to do so. In the bargain, the ordinary people of Pakistan are having a tough time as the trade link between India and Pakistan has been stopped. Items which would have been affordable if bought directly from India are now being bought through Dubai at higher rates. For India, Prime Minister Modi should continue to do what he is doing to Pakistan until they realize that enough is enough and the best for their country and for the region lies in making peace with India.
I conclude my article by predicting two possible scenarios, one in late 2023 and the second one in the middle of 2024. Both Biden and Putin will be attending the Summit of G20 in New Delhi on September 9-10, 2023. Modi can negotiate with both leaders and announce the end of the Ukraine War in their presence in India. The following prediction concerns the timing of the second surgical strike in Pakistan. India has to strike Pakistan once again because of the recent Poonch incident.
Many analysts predict India will strike during January-February 2024 when all important diplomatic events are over and just before the general election. However, my assumption is that India would strike during June 2024 when Modi is sworn in as Prime Minister of India for the third time. What say ?