Nitish Kumar's historic triumph : How Bihar rewrote rules of electoral politics

Dipak Kurmi
Contd from last Saturday
The campaign lacked a coherent narrative that could compete with the NDA's record of governance and welfare delivery, ultimately failing to generate the enthusiasm nece- ssary to challenge the incumbent Govt effectively.
A crucial dimension of the NDA's victory lies in the contrasting approaches to social coalition building adopted by the two alliances. The RJD commands the support of Bihar's most significant vote bank, the combined constituency of Yadavs and Muslims, who together account for 32 percent of the state's population. This is a formidable base, yet over the past two decades, the party has struggled to expand beyond this core. Meanwhile, Nitish Kumar, starting from a much smaller caste base, has systematically cultivated support among Extremely Backward Classes, non-Yadav Other Backward Classes, and Mahadalits through a combination of targeted welfare schemes and political representation.
The effectiveness of Kumar's approach is evident from his electoral floor. Even at his nadir, contesting the 2014 Lok Sabha elections independently, Kumar garnered 16 percent of votes, primarily from EBC and non-Yadav OBC communities. This represented a social coalition built not on traditional caste loyalties but on governance delivery and strategic welfare targeting. In contrast, the RJD, which once enjoyed support from Dalits and EBCs, has seen this backing erode over time. Despite Tejashwi Yadav's efforts to woo these communities through special sabhas, frequent invocations of EBC icon Karpoori Thakur, reminders of his father's contribution to social justice, and alliances with EBC-oriented parties like VIP and IIP, the party failed to convince these communities that it could effectively work for their welfare.
The RJD's difficulties were compounded by internal contradictions. While attempting to expand its social base, the party appeared simultaneously focused on consolidating its Yadav support. Of the 75 OBC candidates fielded by the RJD, 51 were Yadavs, a ratio that sent a clear signal about the party's priorities and undermined its outreach efforts to other communities.
Nitish Kumar's pioneering recognition of women as a distinct political constituency, separate from caste identities, proved to be another decisive factor. This insight was particularly relevant in Bihar, where large-scale male migration to other states for work opportunities has created a demographic reality in which women constitute a significant and distinct electoral bloc. Kumar was among the first leaders to recognise this, beginning with the distribution of free bicycles to school-going girls as far back as 2006, a scheme that simultaneously addressed girls' education and mobility while building political goodwill. Over the years, he introduced reservations for women in local body elections and launched numerous welfare schemes targeting female voters. Even the controversial prohibition policy imposed in 2016, which faced criticism on multiple fronts, was primarily aimed at appealing to women voters concerned about alcohol's social impact. These sustained overtures have created a reservoir of trust among women voters that translated into electoral support.
Perhaps the most intangible yet powerful factor working against the RJD was the enduring memory of the so-called "jungle raj" of the 1990s and early 2000s. Despite two decades having passed since the peak of lawlessness, kidnappings, gang wars, and unchecked dominance by local strongmen, these memories remain vivid in rural Bihar's collective consciousness. In tea shops and village chaupals, older voters recount tales of travelling home before sunset, shopkeepers closing early out of fear, vehicles being stolen on the day of purchase, and families anxiously awaiting their children's safe return from school.
These recollections resurface reliably during every election season, shaping voter behaviour in ways that the RJD has consistently underestimated. Many voters from non-Yadav OBC, EBC, and Mahadalit communities explicitly express fear of a return to those dark days if the RJD were to regain power. This anxiety is amplified by the assertive mobilisation of Yadav supporters visible in RJD strongholds. While the party interprets this as enthusiasm and energy, other communities often perceive it as overbearing and threatening, leading to a reverse consolidation of non-Yadav votes against the party.
In the final analysis, the RJD's defeat was not merely a loss to the NDA but a defeat to its own historical legacy. The party found itself fighting on two fronts: against the incumbent government's developmental narrative and against the ghost of its own past. The latter proved to be the more formidable opponent, casting a long and unsettling shadow over the party's attempts at reinvention.
The Bihar election results of 2025 will likely be studied for years to come as a masterclass in political management and coalition building. Nitish Kumar's ability to secure a fourth consecutive term with an expanded majority defies the conventional wisdom of Indian politics and establishes new benchmarks for political longevity and electoral success. It demonstrates that in contemporary Indian democracy, effective governance combined with strategic welfare delivery can overcome the twin challenges of anti-incumbency and caste-based politics. For the opposition, it serves as a sobering reminder that promises alone cannot compete with delivery, and that historical burdens, if not adequately addressed, can continue to haunt political parties long after the events themselves have faded into history. As Bihar embarks on another term under Nitish Kumar's leadership, the question that looms large is whether this mandate will inspire genuine transformation or merely extend the status quo for another five years.
(The writer can be reached at dipakkurmiglpltd@gmail.com)