Manipur’s road to peace : A fragile but promising path forward
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Dipak Kurmi
The conflict in Manipur has taken a significant turn in recent weeks, offering glimpses of hope amidst the prolonged strife. The surrender of arms by the radical Meitei group Arambai Tenggol (AT), Union Home Minister Amit Shah’s decisive stance on reopening roads, and the resignation of Chief Minister N Biren Singh have all contributed to a renewed push for stability. However, beneath these positive developments, the deep-rooted animosities and the continued proliferation of weapons make true reconciliation a formidable challenge.
One of the most crucial steps toward de-escalation occurred on February 27, when AT voluntarily surrendered 246 weapons following an appeal from Manipur Governor Ajay Kumar Bhalla. This act marks the largest voluntary surrender of arms since the ethnic conflict erupted in May 2023. Despite its symbolic weight, security experts warn that the move may not indicate a complete disarmament of the group. Reports suggest that a substantial portion of the sophisticated weapons looted from State armories remains unaccounted for, with many of the surrendered arms being crude, country-made firearms. Additionally, AT has conditioned its cooperation on security guarantees and amnesty for its members, signifying that the group still wields considerable influence.
The Union Home Minister’s directive to ensure unrestricted movement on Manipur’s Highways from March 8 represents another critical effort to restore normalcy. Road blockades have long been a destabilizing factor, disrupting trade, essential supplies, and economic activities. In parallel, the Government’s push to dismantle illegal bunkers and curb drug trafficking aligns with its broader agenda of reinstating law and order. However, these measures face implementation challenges. Securing the highways necessitates a sustained and robust security presence, as groups with vested interests could attempt to reimpose blockades. Furthermore, while a crackdown on the illicit drug trade is necessary, authorities must exercise caution to avoid further alienating marginalized communities that already harbor deep-seated grievances.
Another major shift in the political landscape came with the resignation of Chief Minister N Biren Singh and the imposition of President’s Rule. Singh, widely perceived as a patron of Meitei groups such as AT, played a pivotal role in shaping the conflict’s trajectory. His administration was criticized for its failure to bridge the widening gap between the Meitei and Kuki-Zomi communities, opting instead for a politically expedient approach that exacerbated hostilities. While his removal signals a recalibration of power dynamics, the core issues—ethnic division, distrust, and political autonomy—remain unresolved.
A critical and unresolved demand is that of a Separate Administration for the Kuki-Zomi communities. The continued push for political autonomy underscores the depth of the division, with both communities viewing each other with suspicion. Without a structured reconciliation plan that addresses the political aspirations of all groups, the current peace efforts risk being temporary. The Governor’s decision to extend the deadline for the return of looted weapons until March 6, following AT’s voluntary surrender, is a prudent step. Reports indicate that the group has deposited approximately 300 weapons so far, with the possibility of more being returned in the coming days. Given that Meitei groups were widely blamed for the mass looting of arms from police stations, this development is particularly significant in signaling a shift towards restoring law and order.
Governor Bhalla’s extension of the surrender deadline was reportedly influenced by appeals from both valley and hill communities, reinforcing the idea that peace is a shared aspiration. He framed the extension as the “last opportunity” for all concerned parties to contribute to stability, communal harmony, and the future security of Manipur. His role in the crisis, particularly in contrast to the previous Government’s inaction, has been viewed as an effort to rebuild trust between the State and its people. However, the true test of his leadership lies in how he follows through after the March 6 deadline expires. If the Governor’s administration fails to take decisive action against those who continue to hoard weapons or foment unrest, public confidence in the Government’s ability to ensure justice and security will remain precarious.
The ethnic clashes between the Meitei and the tribal Kuki-Zomi communities were exacerbated by what many observers have described as the partisan approach of the Biren Singh-led Government. Despite repeated warnings from independent investigators and even the Supreme Court of India, the Central Government provided unwavering support to Singh until the conflict began expanding beyond the Imphal Valley and into the border districts, posing a significant National security threat.
The security situation deteriorated to such an extent that several Kuki-Zomi villages formed their own defense committees in response to the Government’s failure to provide protection. Law and order had effectively collapsed, making Manipur one of the most unstable regions in India in recent history. The removal of Biren Singh, although long overdue, came only after the Central Government recognized the wider implications of unchecked violence in the sensitive border State.
Now, the Governor’s administration must navigate the difficult task of ensuring that the positive momentum gained through arms surrenders and political realignments translates into lasting peace. To achieve this, law enforcement agencies must remain impartial in their crackdown on armed groups, regardless of their ethnic affiliations. The Government must also address the fundamental grievances of the Kuki-Zomi population by engaging in sincere dialogue regarding their demand for political autonomy. Without a meaningful resolution to these core issues, any peace achieved through temporary measures will remain fragile.
(The writer can be reached at [email protected])
The conflict in Manipur has taken a significant turn in recent weeks, offering glimpses of hope amidst the prolonged strife. The surrender of arms by the radical Meitei group Arambai Tenggol (AT), Union Home Minister Amit Shah’s decisive stance on reopening roads, and the resignation of Chief Minister N Biren Singh have all contributed to a renewed push for stability. However, beneath these positive developments, the deep-rooted animosities and the continued proliferation of weapons make true reconciliation a formidable challenge.
One of the most crucial steps toward de-escalation occurred on February 27, when AT voluntarily surrendered 246 weapons following an appeal from Manipur Governor Ajay Kumar Bhalla. This act marks the largest voluntary surrender of arms since the ethnic conflict erupted in May 2023. Despite its symbolic weight, security experts warn that the move may not indicate a complete disarmament of the group. Reports suggest that a substantial portion of the sophisticated weapons looted from State armories remains unaccounted for, with many of the surrendered arms being crude, country-made firearms. Additionally, AT has conditioned its cooperation on security guarantees and amnesty for its members, signifying that the group still wields considerable influence.
The Union Home Minister’s directive to ensure unrestricted movement on Manipur’s Highways from March 8 represents another critical effort to restore normalcy. Road blockades have long been a destabilizing factor, disrupting trade, essential supplies, and economic activities. In parallel, the Government’s push to dismantle illegal bunkers and curb drug trafficking aligns with its broader agenda of reinstating law and order. However, these measures face implementation challenges. Securing the highways necessitates a sustained and robust security presence, as groups with vested interests could attempt to reimpose blockades. Furthermore, while a crackdown on the illicit drug trade is necessary, authorities must exercise caution to avoid further alienating marginalized communities that already harbor deep-seated grievances.
Another major shift in the political landscape came with the resignation of Chief Minister N Biren Singh and the imposition of President’s Rule. Singh, widely perceived as a patron of Meitei groups such as AT, played a pivotal role in shaping the conflict’s trajectory. His administration was criticized for its failure to bridge the widening gap between the Meitei and Kuki-Zomi communities, opting instead for a politically expedient approach that exacerbated hostilities. While his removal signals a recalibration of power dynamics, the core issues—ethnic division, distrust, and political autonomy—remain unresolved.
A critical and unresolved demand is that of a Separate Administration for the Kuki-Zomi communities. The continued push for political autonomy underscores the depth of the division, with both communities viewing each other with suspicion. Without a structured reconciliation plan that addresses the political aspirations of all groups, the current peace efforts risk being temporary. The Governor’s decision to extend the deadline for the return of looted weapons until March 6, following AT’s voluntary surrender, is a prudent step. Reports indicate that the group has deposited approximately 300 weapons so far, with the possibility of more being returned in the coming days. Given that Meitei groups were widely blamed for the mass looting of arms from police stations, this development is particularly significant in signaling a shift towards restoring law and order.
Governor Bhalla’s extension of the surrender deadline was reportedly influenced by appeals from both valley and hill communities, reinforcing the idea that peace is a shared aspiration. He framed the extension as the “last opportunity” for all concerned parties to contribute to stability, communal harmony, and the future security of Manipur. His role in the crisis, particularly in contrast to the previous Government’s inaction, has been viewed as an effort to rebuild trust between the State and its people. However, the true test of his leadership lies in how he follows through after the March 6 deadline expires. If the Governor’s administration fails to take decisive action against those who continue to hoard weapons or foment unrest, public confidence in the Government’s ability to ensure justice and security will remain precarious.
The ethnic clashes between the Meitei and the tribal Kuki-Zomi communities were exacerbated by what many observers have described as the partisan approach of the Biren Singh-led Government. Despite repeated warnings from independent investigators and even the Supreme Court of India, the Central Government provided unwavering support to Singh until the conflict began expanding beyond the Imphal Valley and into the border districts, posing a significant National security threat.
The security situation deteriorated to such an extent that several Kuki-Zomi villages formed their own defense committees in response to the Government’s failure to provide protection. Law and order had effectively collapsed, making Manipur one of the most unstable regions in India in recent history. The removal of Biren Singh, although long overdue, came only after the Central Government recognized the wider implications of unchecked violence in the sensitive border State.
Now, the Governor’s administration must navigate the difficult task of ensuring that the positive momentum gained through arms surrenders and political realignments translates into lasting peace. To achieve this, law enforcement agencies must remain impartial in their crackdown on armed groups, regardless of their ethnic affiliations. The Government must also address the fundamental grievances of the Kuki-Zomi population by engaging in sincere dialogue regarding their demand for political autonomy. Without a meaningful resolution to these core issues, any peace achieved through temporary measures will remain fragile.
(The writer can be reached at [email protected])