The delimitation and NRC issues in Manipur
|
K Timothy Zimik (IRS, Retired)
DELIMITATION BASED ON CENSUS 2001 AND GEOGRAPHICAL AREA
As per the census of 2001, the total population of Manipur is 22,93,896. Out of this, the four Imphal valley districts have population of 14,11,766 which comes to 61.54% whereas the hill districts of Manipur have a population of 8,82,130 which works out to 38.46%. There are 60 legislative Assembly Constituencies (seats) in Manipur – 40 seats for Manipur valley and 20 seats for the hill areas.
The Scheduled Caste population is mainly concentrated in the districts of Thoubal, Imphal East and Imphal West having one reserved seat.
The State of Manipur has a total geographical area of 22,327 square kilometres. The valley has a total area of 2,238 square kilometres comprising the four districts of Imphal East, Imphal West, Bishnupur and Thoubal and is occupied mainly by the Meitei community, whereas the remaining 20,089 square kilometres comprising the five hill districts of Churachandpur, Ukhrul, Tamenglong, Chandel and Senapati are occupied mainly by the Naga and Kuki-Zo tribes.
From the tables, it is seen that the average population per Assembly Constituency of the Imphal valley is 35,294 whereas the average population per Assembly Constituency of hill areas is 44,107. The tables demonstrate that the Imphal valley is over-represented, whereas some hill districts are under-represented in the Manipur legislative Assembly. Further, the average area per Assembly Constituency of the Imphal valley is 56 square kilometres, whereas the hill areas have 1004 square kilometres per Assembly Constituency. Chandel and Ukhrul districts have 1657 sq. kms. and 1515 sq. kms. average area per Assembly Constituency respectively. The huge geographical size of the hill areas, physical continuity, extreme remoteness of villages, marginalization hill people, closeness to the unregulated porous international border, and difficult mountainous terrains should also be taken into account for re-drawing and re-adjustment of legislative Assembly Constituencies to ensure that the hill tribes of Manipur are proportionately represented in the Manipur Legislative Assembly. While finalizing the delimitation process in J & K, the Election Commission has taken into account the population, “constituencies’ practicality, geographical compatibility, topography, physical features, and means of communication available”.
The average population of the entire State of Manipur per Assembly Constituency is 38,232. As indicated above, the Imphal valley has 61.5% of the State population having 40 Assembly seats. But this works out to 66.7% of the total Assembly seats of the State. Whereas the hill areas have 38.5% of the State population, but they have only 20 seats which works out to 33.3% of the total Assembly seats. Therefore, the 61.5% of the valley population should have only 37 Assembly seats and the 38.5% of the hill population must have at least 23 Assembly seats.
If we do this exercise, the revised average population per Constituency of hill areas comes to 38,353 (8,82,130 ÷ 23) as against the revised average population of 38,156 (14,11,766 ÷ 37 ) per Constituency in the case of the valley. This tallies with the above-mentioned average population of 38,232 of Manipur per Constituency. Thus, if the re-drawing and re-adjustment of Constituencies in Manipur is done on the basis of 2001 census, then the hill districts should have 23 legislative Assembly seats instead of the existing 20 seats.
The above discussions show that the Assembly seats of 3 hill districts of Ukhrul, Chandel and Senapati should increase by one seat each. Let us take the case of Chandel district for illustration purpose. The average population per Assembly Constituency of Chandel district is 59,164 whereas the average population per Assembly Constituency of Imphal valley is 35,294. The difference per Assembly Constituency between Chandel district and the Imphal valley is 23,870 (59,164 – 35,294). Chandel district has two Assembly seats. Thus, the excess population available for additional seat works out to 47,740 (23,870 x 2) in the case of Chandel. If this exercise is carried out in the cases of Ukhrul and Senapati districts, Ukhrul district has 34,896 excess population and Senapati district has 71,856. The total excess population for additional seats of these three districts comes to 1,54,492 (47,740+34,806+71,856) resulting in the average population per Assembly seat of 51,497 which is much higher than the average population of 35,294 per assembly seat of Imphal valley areas.
Out of total population of 2,23,778 of these three sub-divisions, the Registrar General of India included the population of 1,27,108 in the 2001 census on estimate basis (39.16%). Thus, the population of 96,670 (2,23,778 – 1,27,08) from Mao-Maram, Paomata & Purul sub-divisions of Senapati district was excluded from the 2001 census which resulted in the loss of two Assembly seats.
The other three sub-divisions of Senapati district (inhabited by the Kukis, Nepalis and Nagas) had a population of 1,56,513 = Sadar Hills West (60,945) + Sadar Hills East (51,438) + Saitu Gamphazol (44,130). In the 2001 census, the Census Authority finally recorded the adjusted population of Senapati district at 2,83,621 having 6 Assembly seats. If a comparison is made, the Bishnupur district having only a population of 2,08,368 has the same number of 6 Assembly seats.
RESISTANCE TO DELIMITATION EXERCISE BASED ON 2001 CENSUS
All the major political parties and civil social organizations located in the Imphal valley have strongly opposed the delimitation exercise based on the 2001 census with the argument that the 2001 census figures are erroneous as there is abnormal population growth in nine sub-divisions of hill districts. The Census Authority of India had officially notified the census 2001 after adjusting the population figures of Mao-Maram, Paomata and Purul sub-divisions of Senapati district. There were no major rectifications in other sub-divisions. Based on 2001 census, the State of Manipur headed by these Imphal based leaders has been conducting its business and administration for years without any complaint from any quarter. While receiving the revenues and funds from the Centre, these political parties and CSOs have not opposed the census of 2001.
Further, based on the population census of 2001, the Government of India and the Government of Manipur had conducted Parliamentary, Assembly, district council and local civic elections peacefully without difficulties. It is only when the delimitation exercise to be carried out based on the population census of 2001 that these Imphal based parties have raised hue and cry against it.
Due to the stiff opposition against the use of 2001 census, the delimitation exercise based on 2001 census has not been carried out in Manipur so far.
The 2011 census is the latest census available. No census is undertaken for 2021 due to Covid-19 pandemic. The next census will be 2031. If we consider the latest census of 2011 for delimitation purpose , the result will be as follows:
As per the office of the Registrar General of India 2011 census and Economic Survey Manipur-2014-15, the total population of Manipur is 28,55,794 including the population of Mao Maram, Paomata and Purul sub-divisions of Senapati district. Out of this, the Imphal valley has a population of 16,33,672 (57.20%) and the hill areas have the population of 12,22,122 (42.80%). The average population per Assembly Constituency of Imphal valley is 40,842 whereas in the case of hill districts, it comes to 61,106. If delimitation exercise is carried out on the basis of census 2011, the hill districts should get at least 6 more additional Assembly seats. The additional seats to hill districts have emerged from the officially recorded 2011 census.
The Government of India had completed the delimitation exercise in the case of Jammu and Kashmir but the States of Manipur, Assam, Nagaland and Arunachal Pradesh had been omitted from the purview of the Delimitation Commission vide Notification dated 30/03/2021. Vide Office memorandum dated 19th July, 2022, the Government of India decided to initiate delimitation exercise in the States of Assam and Manipur based on 2001 census. Following such instructions, the Election Commission of India (ECI) has completed the delimitation exercise of Parliamentary and Assembly Constituencies of Assam as per Section 8A of Representation of the People Act, 1950 and 2001 census figures are used for this purpose. In Assam, there are multiple unresolved problems such as controversial NRC exercise, illegal immigration issue, etc. and yet, the ECI has initiated and completed the delimitation exercise in Assam. However, the Centre had abandoned the delimitation exercise in Manipur due to the stiff opposition against the use of 2001 census.
REASONS FOR INCREASE OF POPULATION OF HILL AREAS
There are some reasons for the increase of population in some sub-divisions of hill districts.
The reasons are as follows:
(a) The Naga hill districts were seriously affected by the prolonged armed conflict between the India’s Armed Forces and the Nagas. Thus, there was no proper census taken in these hill areas. Many of the villages of these districts are so remotely located and are not easily accessible. The census officials did not visit these remote villages to count the population in those years. Many people were left out from the population census.
(b) The extension of Ceasefire Agreement entered between the Government of India and National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN-IM) of 1997 beyond Nagaland was violently opposed and resisted by the dominant valley-based community leading to the forced migration of hill people from the Imphal valley to their hill areas. When the violent agitation against the said Ceasefire Agreement was at its height, the Nagas residing in the Imphal valley went back to their own places in hill areas.
Many of these people did not go back to Imphal valley.
(c) It was only after the Ceasefire Agreement of 1997 entered between the Government of India and NSCN-IM that security, law and order situation improved in these hill districts and the census exercise of 2001 could be taken more properly and accurately. It is likely that the population of hill areas will further increase if proper head count is undertaken in all the remote villages of Naga areas.
(d) Another very important reason for the increase in the population of these districts is on account of poverty, under-development, low mortality and high illiteracy. Unlike the more educated and advanced sections of the society, there is no family planning in these poor tribal areas. The tribal families in the hill areas have 5 to 6 children or even more as a norm.
(To be contd)
DELIMITATION BASED ON CENSUS 2001 AND GEOGRAPHICAL AREA
As per the census of 2001, the total population of Manipur is 22,93,896. Out of this, the four Imphal valley districts have population of 14,11,766 which comes to 61.54% whereas the hill districts of Manipur have a population of 8,82,130 which works out to 38.46%. There are 60 legislative Assembly Constituencies (seats) in Manipur – 40 seats for Manipur valley and 20 seats for the hill areas.
The Scheduled Caste population is mainly concentrated in the districts of Thoubal, Imphal East and Imphal West having one reserved seat.
The State of Manipur has a total geographical area of 22,327 square kilometres. The valley has a total area of 2,238 square kilometres comprising the four districts of Imphal East, Imphal West, Bishnupur and Thoubal and is occupied mainly by the Meitei community, whereas the remaining 20,089 square kilometres comprising the five hill districts of Churachandpur, Ukhrul, Tamenglong, Chandel and Senapati are occupied mainly by the Naga and Kuki-Zo tribes.
From the tables, it is seen that the average population per Assembly Constituency of the Imphal valley is 35,294 whereas the average population per Assembly Constituency of hill areas is 44,107. The tables demonstrate that the Imphal valley is over-represented, whereas some hill districts are under-represented in the Manipur legislative Assembly. Further, the average area per Assembly Constituency of the Imphal valley is 56 square kilometres, whereas the hill areas have 1004 square kilometres per Assembly Constituency. Chandel and Ukhrul districts have 1657 sq. kms. and 1515 sq. kms. average area per Assembly Constituency respectively. The huge geographical size of the hill areas, physical continuity, extreme remoteness of villages, marginalization hill people, closeness to the unregulated porous international border, and difficult mountainous terrains should also be taken into account for re-drawing and re-adjustment of legislative Assembly Constituencies to ensure that the hill tribes of Manipur are proportionately represented in the Manipur Legislative Assembly. While finalizing the delimitation process in J & K, the Election Commission has taken into account the population, “constituencies’ practicality, geographical compatibility, topography, physical features, and means of communication available”.
The average population of the entire State of Manipur per Assembly Constituency is 38,232. As indicated above, the Imphal valley has 61.5% of the State population having 40 Assembly seats. But this works out to 66.7% of the total Assembly seats of the State. Whereas the hill areas have 38.5% of the State population, but they have only 20 seats which works out to 33.3% of the total Assembly seats. Therefore, the 61.5% of the valley population should have only 37 Assembly seats and the 38.5% of the hill population must have at least 23 Assembly seats.
If we do this exercise, the revised average population per Constituency of hill areas comes to 38,353 (8,82,130 ÷ 23) as against the revised average population of 38,156 (14,11,766 ÷ 37 ) per Constituency in the case of the valley. This tallies with the above-mentioned average population of 38,232 of Manipur per Constituency. Thus, if the re-drawing and re-adjustment of Constituencies in Manipur is done on the basis of 2001 census, then the hill districts should have 23 legislative Assembly seats instead of the existing 20 seats.
The above discussions show that the Assembly seats of 3 hill districts of Ukhrul, Chandel and Senapati should increase by one seat each. Let us take the case of Chandel district for illustration purpose. The average population per Assembly Constituency of Chandel district is 59,164 whereas the average population per Assembly Constituency of Imphal valley is 35,294. The difference per Assembly Constituency between Chandel district and the Imphal valley is 23,870 (59,164 – 35,294). Chandel district has two Assembly seats. Thus, the excess population available for additional seat works out to 47,740 (23,870 x 2) in the case of Chandel. If this exercise is carried out in the cases of Ukhrul and Senapati districts, Ukhrul district has 34,896 excess population and Senapati district has 71,856. The total excess population for additional seats of these three districts comes to 1,54,492 (47,740+34,806+71,856) resulting in the average population per Assembly seat of 51,497 which is much higher than the average population of 35,294 per assembly seat of Imphal valley areas.
Out of total population of 2,23,778 of these three sub-divisions, the Registrar General of India included the population of 1,27,108 in the 2001 census on estimate basis (39.16%). Thus, the population of 96,670 (2,23,778 – 1,27,08) from Mao-Maram, Paomata & Purul sub-divisions of Senapati district was excluded from the 2001 census which resulted in the loss of two Assembly seats.
The other three sub-divisions of Senapati district (inhabited by the Kukis, Nepalis and Nagas) had a population of 1,56,513 = Sadar Hills West (60,945) + Sadar Hills East (51,438) + Saitu Gamphazol (44,130). In the 2001 census, the Census Authority finally recorded the adjusted population of Senapati district at 2,83,621 having 6 Assembly seats. If a comparison is made, the Bishnupur district having only a population of 2,08,368 has the same number of 6 Assembly seats.
RESISTANCE TO DELIMITATION EXERCISE BASED ON 2001 CENSUS
All the major political parties and civil social organizations located in the Imphal valley have strongly opposed the delimitation exercise based on the 2001 census with the argument that the 2001 census figures are erroneous as there is abnormal population growth in nine sub-divisions of hill districts. The Census Authority of India had officially notified the census 2001 after adjusting the population figures of Mao-Maram, Paomata and Purul sub-divisions of Senapati district. There were no major rectifications in other sub-divisions. Based on 2001 census, the State of Manipur headed by these Imphal based leaders has been conducting its business and administration for years without any complaint from any quarter. While receiving the revenues and funds from the Centre, these political parties and CSOs have not opposed the census of 2001.
Further, based on the population census of 2001, the Government of India and the Government of Manipur had conducted Parliamentary, Assembly, district council and local civic elections peacefully without difficulties. It is only when the delimitation exercise to be carried out based on the population census of 2001 that these Imphal based parties have raised hue and cry against it.
Due to the stiff opposition against the use of 2001 census, the delimitation exercise based on 2001 census has not been carried out in Manipur so far.
The 2011 census is the latest census available. No census is undertaken for 2021 due to Covid-19 pandemic. The next census will be 2031. If we consider the latest census of 2011 for delimitation purpose , the result will be as follows:
As per the office of the Registrar General of India 2011 census and Economic Survey Manipur-2014-15, the total population of Manipur is 28,55,794 including the population of Mao Maram, Paomata and Purul sub-divisions of Senapati district. Out of this, the Imphal valley has a population of 16,33,672 (57.20%) and the hill areas have the population of 12,22,122 (42.80%). The average population per Assembly Constituency of Imphal valley is 40,842 whereas in the case of hill districts, it comes to 61,106. If delimitation exercise is carried out on the basis of census 2011, the hill districts should get at least 6 more additional Assembly seats. The additional seats to hill districts have emerged from the officially recorded 2011 census.
The Government of India had completed the delimitation exercise in the case of Jammu and Kashmir but the States of Manipur, Assam, Nagaland and Arunachal Pradesh had been omitted from the purview of the Delimitation Commission vide Notification dated 30/03/2021. Vide Office memorandum dated 19th July, 2022, the Government of India decided to initiate delimitation exercise in the States of Assam and Manipur based on 2001 census. Following such instructions, the Election Commission of India (ECI) has completed the delimitation exercise of Parliamentary and Assembly Constituencies of Assam as per Section 8A of Representation of the People Act, 1950 and 2001 census figures are used for this purpose. In Assam, there are multiple unresolved problems such as controversial NRC exercise, illegal immigration issue, etc. and yet, the ECI has initiated and completed the delimitation exercise in Assam. However, the Centre had abandoned the delimitation exercise in Manipur due to the stiff opposition against the use of 2001 census.
REASONS FOR INCREASE OF POPULATION OF HILL AREAS
There are some reasons for the increase of population in some sub-divisions of hill districts.
The reasons are as follows:
(a) The Naga hill districts were seriously affected by the prolonged armed conflict between the India’s Armed Forces and the Nagas. Thus, there was no proper census taken in these hill areas. Many of the villages of these districts are so remotely located and are not easily accessible. The census officials did not visit these remote villages to count the population in those years. Many people were left out from the population census.
(b) The extension of Ceasefire Agreement entered between the Government of India and National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN-IM) of 1997 beyond Nagaland was violently opposed and resisted by the dominant valley-based community leading to the forced migration of hill people from the Imphal valley to their hill areas. When the violent agitation against the said Ceasefire Agreement was at its height, the Nagas residing in the Imphal valley went back to their own places in hill areas.
Many of these people did not go back to Imphal valley.
(c) It was only after the Ceasefire Agreement of 1997 entered between the Government of India and NSCN-IM that security, law and order situation improved in these hill districts and the census exercise of 2001 could be taken more properly and accurately. It is likely that the population of hill areas will further increase if proper head count is undertaken in all the remote villages of Naga areas.
(d) Another very important reason for the increase in the population of these districts is on account of poverty, under-development, low mortality and high illiteracy. Unlike the more educated and advanced sections of the society, there is no family planning in these poor tribal areas. The tribal families in the hill areas have 5 to 6 children or even more as a norm.
(To be contd)