Looking at extension of PR Manipur since Feb 13
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President’s Rule set to be extended if the report carried by a major newspaper is anything to go by. The question is whether the situation warrants the return of a popular Government or the continuation of the present regime but it is important to note that the wings of the then BJP led Government were clipped effectively after Manipur went up in flames in the evening of May 3, 2023. Back then, it did not take long for the Centre to appoint a Security Advisor and in the process strip the Chief Minister of the post of Chairmanship of the Unified Command. Then came a new DGP, a person appointed by the Centre, going against the practise of the DGP appointed at the discretion of the Chief Minister. Since May 3, 2023, Manipur has also seen two/three Chief Secretaries, with a new face all set to assume office any day soon. Here too the then Chief Minister had no say in the appointment of the Chief Secretary, going against the norm that appointment of the Chief Secretary is also at the discretion of the Chief Minister. All this came about in the midst of the talk that Article 355 has been imposed in Manipur, a move which is seen as just being a step down from President’s Rule. In short, Manipur has practically been under the direct supervision of New Delhi for over two years--the only difference being the popular Government was allowed to continue. It was only on February 13 this year that PR was officially imposed. And it looks set to continue, if the report mentioned in the opening line of this commentary is anything to go by. The question then is whether the coming of PR has taken Manipur anywhere nearer to the path of normalcy or not. For one, Delhi has hosted talks with CSOs representing the Meiteis and the Kuki-Chin-Zo people more than once and indications are that such talks will continue. Incidents of violence or direct confrontation have come down appreciably though this does not mean that the Kuki militants have stopped targeting Meitei farmers working in the fields. The free movement from March 8 call issued by the Union Home Minister turned out to be a fiasco and no Meiteis can travel on the National Highways. A number of people continue to languish in the different relief centres set up across the length and breadth of the State and no Kuki-Chin-Zo have returned to the place they once called home at Imphal or in the other valley districts. A number of arms have either been recovered or made to be given up via the direct appeal issued by Raj Bhavan in the earlier days of the PR regime. This is a rough picture of the reality that is Manipur after PR regime was imposed and the question is whether a popular Government would have been able to do anything better if it had been in place.
Delhi’s intention seems clear. It is more inclined to finish, what it thinks are unfinished jobs or unfinished agenda. To the people, the more appropriate question would be, whether they think that the return of a popular Government would suit the situation better and take Manipur closer to the road of normalcy. Or would a popular Government have been able to disarm the weaponised society on either side of the clash divide ? Would Imphal have been able to ensure the series of meetings held with the CSOs of either community if a popular Government had been in place ? Questions at the moment, but it also stands that Modi and the Central BJP leaders would not want to see a State Government headed by the BJP kept in suspended animation indefinitely and the move to extend the PR regime may be seen as a move to avert the possibility of the Assembly getting dissolved. It should also be kept in mind that Manipur will go to polls in the early part of 2027 and no political party would want to jeopardise its prospect by dissolving the Assembly headed by it. All these factors will need to taken in and studied, but it stands that the move to extend PR in Manipur has come in the face of the wild prognosis doing the round that a popular Government may return by August. Don’t dissolve the Assembly, but let PR continue, seems to be the move initiated by Delhi and Manipur can only hope that things improve. The priority for Manipur is normalcy.
Delhi’s intention seems clear. It is more inclined to finish, what it thinks are unfinished jobs or unfinished agenda. To the people, the more appropriate question would be, whether they think that the return of a popular Government would suit the situation better and take Manipur closer to the road of normalcy. Or would a popular Government have been able to disarm the weaponised society on either side of the clash divide ? Would Imphal have been able to ensure the series of meetings held with the CSOs of either community if a popular Government had been in place ? Questions at the moment, but it also stands that Modi and the Central BJP leaders would not want to see a State Government headed by the BJP kept in suspended animation indefinitely and the move to extend the PR regime may be seen as a move to avert the possibility of the Assembly getting dissolved. It should also be kept in mind that Manipur will go to polls in the early part of 2027 and no political party would want to jeopardise its prospect by dissolving the Assembly headed by it. All these factors will need to taken in and studied, but it stands that the move to extend PR in Manipur has come in the face of the wild prognosis doing the round that a popular Government may return by August. Don’t dissolve the Assembly, but let PR continue, seems to be the move initiated by Delhi and Manipur can only hope that things improve. The priority for Manipur is normalcy.