Failure to establish a Govt - Inviting more extension of PR or Assembly's dissolution

Birendra Laishram
The State of Manipur has been under President’s Rule since February 13, 2025, leaving citizens eagerly awaiting the return of a representative and popularly elected Government. Despite numerous assurances and repeated pronouncements from BJP MLAs and allied leaders indicating that a popular Government would be formed “soon,” several months have elapsed, and the desired progress remains elusive. This prolonged delay raises critical questions about the underlying issues and the reasons behind the continued absence of an elected Government. What factors are truly impeding progress ? Why is the formation of a stable and representative Government taking so long ? What are the implications for the citizens of Manipur? Is it possible to form Government ?
The Constitutional Roadblocks
The ongoing governance crisis in Manipur is not merely a political impasse; it presents significant Constitutional challenges that must be addressed before a stable Government can be established. These challenges are rooted in specific provisions of the Indian Constitution and the unique circumstances prevailing in the state.
• Article 356 of the Indian Constitution stipulates that President’s Rule, which essentially places a State under the direct control of the Central Government, can only be revoked when the Union Cabinet is satisfied that the State's Constitutional machinery is functioning effectively and that the State Government can operate in accordance with the Constitution. The Central Government must be convinced that the conditions for Constitutional governance have been restored.
• A crucial requirement for forming a new Government is that the incoming Chief Minister must demonstrate majority support within the Legislative Assembly. This is a fundamental principle of Parliamentary democracy. However, the situation in Manipur is complicated by the fact that 10 Kuki-Zo MLAs are currently boycotting Assembly proceedings on the advice of the Kuki militants and Kuki CSOs. Consequently, any Government formed without their participation risks being perceived as unconstitutional and lacking the broad representation necessary for stability.
• The failure of the Legislative Assembly to reconvene before the stipulated February deadline acted as the primary trigger for the imposition of President’s Rule and the ensuing governance crisis. The inability to hold timely Assembly sessions exacerbated the existing political uncertainties.
The Political Reality
Manipur's political instability stems from internal divisions within the ruling BJP and persistent ethnic tensions between the Meitei and Kuki communities. Despite the BJP's legislative majority, these factors hampered governance, culminating in President's Rule on February 13, 2025, following escalating violence and the resignation of Chief Minister N Biren Singh. Subsequent attempts to form a new Government were marked by factionalism : ten MLAs petitioned for a representative Government on May 28, followed by gatherings of BJP MLAs on May 30, May 31, June 28-29, and July 14, all aimed at establishing a popular Government. Key obstacles to stability include: deep ethnic polarization hindering inclusive governance, a leadership vacuum created by N Biren Singh's resignation and the failure to agree on a successor, and persistent security concerns due to thousands of missing weapons and the trauma of displaced communities. These challenges contribute to ongoing political paralysis.
Strategic Considerations Influencing the Delay
It appears that the Union Government is prioritizing the achievement of genuine reconciliation between the warring communities over the rushed formation of a new Government.
A comprehensive peace dialogue, involving representatives from civil society organizations, armed groups, and legislators from all communities, is widely viewed as a fundamental prerequisite for restoring democratic institutions and establishing a lasting peace.
The BJP’s internal divisions, coupled with the absence of a credible and demonstrably neutral leader who can command the respect of all communities, further contributes to the ongoing delay in the formation of a popular Government. From the above propositions it derives that PR will continue.
What Can Citizens Do ?
• Stay informed : It is crucial for citizens to remain abreast of the latest developments and to develop a thorough understanding of the complex Constitutional and political dynamics that are shaping the current situation. Knowledge is power, and informed citizens are better equipped to advocate for positive change.
• Demand transparency : Citizens should actively engage with their elected leaders and the Central Government, demanding clear timelines for the restoration of a popular Government and holding them accountable for their actions. Transparency in decision-making is essential for building trust and ensuring that the Government acts in the best interests of the people.
• Support peace efforts : Actively support initiatives aimed at promoting inclusive dialogue, community reconciliation, and peace-building. Encourage communication and understanding between different communities, and work towards fostering a more harmonious and inclusive society.
The Path Forward
Manipur, with its history as a princely State, is home to a diverse tapestry of communities. Given this rich mix of cultures and traditions, it's crucial that no single community is made to feel excluded or disenfranchised from the State's identity or resources. It is essential that all communities embrace a sense of belonging and cultivate a shared pride in being Manipuri, fostering unity and mutual respect among all residents. Furthermore, a collective responsibility rests upon all communities to safeguard the State's borders and protect it from the challenges posed by illegal immigration from neighbouring countries. This unified front is necessary to preserve the State's unique identity and cultural heritage.
The financial stability of Manipur is significantly reliant on funding allocated by the Central Government. This reliance underscores the importance of a collaborative relationship between the State and central authorities. Development initiatives and projects within Manipur are largely guided by the policies and programs designed and implemented by the Central Government through various schemes. To ensure that these developmental works are truly effective and beneficial to all, it is imperative that the guidelines governing these schemes incorporate the perspectives and needs of hill villages and other marginalized communities. This inclusive approach will ensure that development reaches all corners of the State and addresses the specific challenges faced by different regions.
Manipur needs a Government that truly represents its diverse population's interests, cultures, and aspirations. This governance must be free from corruption, favouritism, and illegal trades, resisting undue influence from divisive factions. Prioritizing inclusivity, equity, and justice will ensure all citizens feel acknowledged and supported.
The immediate focus should be on restoring peace and harmony among communities, rebuilding trust, and fostering understanding. Simultaneously, the Government must uphold Constitutional integrity and the rule of law, ensuring fairness and accountability.
These elements—peace, trust, and legal adherence—are critical for a stable and secure environment. They form the foundation for sustainable development, enabling Manipur to progress toward shared growth, prosperity, and harmony, overcoming its challenges and establishing a truly representative government.
Under Article 356 of the Indian Constitution, the "animated suspension" of a State Legislative Assembly, as in Manipur since February 15, 2025, is a temporary measure linked to President’s Rule. This means the Assembly isn't dissolved but its functions are suspended, with the Governor administering the State on behalf of the President. The Assembly can be revived once President’s Rule ends.
Initially, President’s Rule lasts six months, requiring Parliamentary approval for extensions up to a total of three years. The Assembly's suspended animation is limited to six months. If no Government forms or elections occur within this time, the Assembly may be dissolved, prompting fresh elections.
President’s Rule can extend up to three years only under a National emergency or with Election Commission certification that elections are infeasible.
The Assembly suspension in Manipur can last until mid-August 2025. If no Chief Minister is appointed or elections held by then, dissolution is possible. Revival depends on restored normalcy and political consensus. Suspended animation avoids premature dissolution, preserving the democratic structure while allowing time for political realignment or peace-building.
Instances of President's Rule and Assembly suspensions in India
Delhi (2013–2015): Following CM Arvind Kejriwal's resignation in February 2014, the Delhi Assembly was suspended and placed under President's Rule until fresh elections in February 2015 (after one year).
Jammu & Kashmir (2018–2019): After the PDP-BJP coalition collapsed in June 2018, the Assembly was suspended. President's Rule was imposed in December 2018, and the Assembly was dissolved in October 2019, coinciding with the State's reorganization into two Union Territories.
Bihar (2005): After the February 2005 elections resulted in a fractured mandate and no party could form a Government, the Assembly was suspended. It was dissolved in May 2005, leading to fresh elections in October.
Under Article 356, President's Rule can be extended beyond one year (up to three years) only with Parliamentary approval every six months, and if a National emergency is in force or the Election Commission certifies that elections cannot be held. While the suspended animation of a State Legislative Assembly is indirectly extended through the approval of President's Rule.
President's Rule in Manipur was imposed on February 13, 2025, and the Assembly suspended after CM N Biren Singh's resignation due to on-going ethnic violence and a political impasse. The Assembly remains inactive, awaiting either a return to normalcy or new elections. If no Government is formed by August 13, 2025, the Assembly may be dissolved, and President’s Rule can continue with Parliamentary approval until fresh elections are held. Or the period of suspended animation may be extended by Parliament. Suspended animation can be replaced by dissolution if no resolution is found.