Operations ‘Epic Fury’ and ‘True Promise 4’ : David and Goliath

Brigadier (Retired) L Ibotombi Singh
Operation ‘Epic Fury”, a large-scale military campaign was launched on February 28, 2026, by the combined forces of United States and Israel with the primary objectives to dismantle nuclear program and to bring regime and political changes in Iran. In doing so, to destroy Iran’s long-range missile arsenal and production sites. Being the “biggest, strongest, most advanced” fighting force on earth Washington is automatically Goliath in any confrontation they get into. The initial “pre-emptive punitive strikes” against Iran included political and military senior leadership and major important infrastructures, which included IRGC command centers, air defense systems, and missile production facilities. The maxim ‘no plan survives contact” is truly manifested by the fact in this operation that Iran resorted to regional escalation (Operation “True Promise 4”) as David, by launching loitering munitions (drones)  and missiles at US bases and allied Nations in the region (Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain), with some 7-9 US fatal casualties and more than 20 injured. The operation anticipated to be over within first few days has not attained its political and military objectives, instead Washington could be in serious trouble in the Middle East, and if prolonged may bleed economically to the interests of Moscow and Beijing. Even the regime and political changes in Tehran have backfired as Tehran now under present circumstances is unifying grievances powerful enough to override internal fractures. Instead of accelerating collapse, the strike risks consolidating the regime. Thus, despite the successful “strategic decapitation” of Iran’s top leadership, including the death of Ali Khamenei, the operation did not immediately trigger a popular revolt or a clear surrender.
Asymmetric Warfare
The war between Iran, on one side, and United States and Israel, on the other, is a classic example of asymmetric warfare by Iran. Asymmetric warfare happens when a weaker country fights a stronger one, using unconventional tactics. The United States and Israel possess highly advanced weapon systems, modern equipment, and massive military inventories. Iran cannot match their military spending or technological sophistication. Iran simply does not have the capability to strike the US mainland reliably, instead, with huge arsenals of shortand medium range missiles, Iran is estimated to possess approximately 2,500 to 3,000 ballistic missiles and to 80,000 loitering munitions (Drones) as of March 2026, it can reach US bases throughout the Gulf Region. So, when Iran responds, it strikes where it can hit and where the impact resonates. And that’s 100% strategic, part of Asymmetric warfare. These little “gnats (drones)” have struck the US 5th fleet in Bahrain, the US embassies in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, and the fatal strike on a US Army camp in Kuwait. And they’re continuing to ignite oil fields, ports, and tankers throughout the region, to bring pressure by Gulf Countries to Washington and also bleed them economically.
David & Goliath
The US sponsored propaganda in all major worlds, print and electronic media, have made tall claims with AI generated footages that America’s vastly superior interceptor missiles have intercepted 92% of Iranian drones and missiles. Even if one buys these narratives about enormous destructions caused to Tehran, the question is at what cost ?  US Central Command estimated that Iran has fired 500 ballistic missiles and more than 2,000 drones since the war started 11 days ago (40% targeting Israel, 60% targeting the US bases). For this, as per Military Times, the US employs three different missile interceptor systems, the Patriot missile defense system, Aegis Combat System (SM-3/SM-6) and Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-ballistic missile systems. As of December 2025, the US had a total arsenal of 414 SM-3s, 1,500 SM-6s, 534 THAADs, and around 1,200 Patriots, out of which Washington only had 25% of the Patriots the Pentagon needed for its plans. The US only produces 500-700 Patriot missiles annually at a cost of $4 million each. And typical usage is to fire two interceptors per incoming target, meaning for every single interception attempt Washington will incur  cost of $8-million. Thus, David and Goliath analogy is $8 million to take down a $20,000 drone. This excludes, THAAD rockets, produced around 96 a year by Lockheed Martin, at $13-15.5 million per rocket. Similarly, the Aegis Standard Missile-3 (SM-3) costs a whopping $28 million apiece, though a “cheaper” option, the SM-6 is available in the $9-$10 million range. The gist is that the US currently has somewhere in the ballpark of 3,600 interceptor missiles, 2,700 intended for slow moving drones, 900 for high speed ballistic missiles, at extremely high costs.
The ugly truth Trump and Hegseth can’t bring themselves to acknowledge is that Iran is estimated to possess approximately 2,500 to 3,000 ballistic missiles and about 80,000 loitering munitions (Drones) as of March 2026, which can reach US bases throughout the Gulf region. These Drones are stockpiled in underground bunkers all over the country. Unlike missiles, they’re easily transported and can be launched undetected from the back of a pickup truck. Compared to America’s interceptors, they’re comi- cally cheap to make, anything between $20k-$50k each. And they can be built incredibly fast (Russia’s been producing 4,000-5,000 per month). For example, the Shahed-136 kamikaze drone looks like a mini jet with an 8-foot wingspan, has a range of 1,550 miles (2,500km), a top speed of 115 mph (185 kph), and packs a 66-110 lb warhead. Rather than being operated by remote control, it has a pre-programmed flight path to a set target using a satellite navigation system. Because of its slim profile and ability to fly at low altitude, it’s hard to detect by radar or early warning systems. As an example of how much asymmetrical damage these drones can do, one of Iran’s $30k attack drones took out Qatar’s $1.1 billion ballistic missile tracking system. Therefore, with the present stockpiles of drones Iran can “unleash drone hell” any time it wants to and there’s little the US military can do about it, as it is happening in last 11 days of war in Gulf Region. At the 2-to-1 interceptor rate America employs, Iran could theoretically deplete the entire US interceptor stockpile with a little over 7,000 attacks. To sum up it would cost Iran $360 million to replace the drones so as to deplete America’s entire interceptor stockpile. It would cost America $39.5 Billion to replace those interceptors. That is probably the best explanation as to why Trump launched a war and then almost immediately demanded a ceasefire, which Iran turned down.
Cracks between Allies
The United States has expressed significant “dismay” following a series of Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian fuel depots, marking the first major public rift between the two longtime allies since the current conflict erupted. While the US has consistently supported Israel’s right to self-defense, this specific targeting of energy infrastructure is seen by Washington as a move that could needlessly spike global oil prices and further destabilize the regional economy. The disagreement highlights a fundamental difference in strategy, while Israel aims to cripple Iran’s economic ability to fund its military operations, the Trump administration appears more focused on a “contained” conflict that avoids a total energy crisis. US officials are concerned that these strikes on non-military targets might force Iran into a “total war” footing, making de-escalation nearly impossible in the short term.
When Trump claims that every fighting war machine of Iran have been eliminated and destroyed including the military and civil leadership of Iran, then why is he sending a third air craft carrier into that region ? The fact is that none of his strategic aims have so far been achieved and asking Iran to unconditionally surrender is nothing but a gimmick. He now also knows that having failed to achieve the primary aim of the regime change in Iran, he is therefore looking for an excuse on how to honourably conclude ‘Operation Epic Fury’ before his Americans become even more furious over his decision to launch a war on Iran and that too without the approval of the Senate. No matter what Trumps final aim maybe to bring Iran to its knees, he also needs to remember that the US in spite of its massive military power could not achieve it in Korea, in Vietnam and not even in Afghanistan and a small little island like Cuba which is only a stone’s throw away from Florida. Therefore, having put himself in a very tricky Catch 22 situation, Trump has no other option but to stop this war unilaterally.